Global temperatures are going to continue at or near record levels for the next five years, according to a new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released on May 28, 2026. The report, known as the Global Annual-to-Decadal Update, was produced by the United Kingdom’s (UK) Met Office for the WMO.
The document analyses observed weather data for the previous five years and makes regional broad scale predictions for temperatures and precipitation in the next five years. The data and analysis is synthesised from 13 different institutes including the Barcelona Super Computer Centre, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Deutscher Wetterdiesnt and the Met Office.
“The forecasts are intended as guidance for Regional Climate Centres, Regional Climate Outlook Forums and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services,” according to a statement from the WMO.
According to the report, global annual average near surface temperatures in 2026-2030 could be in the range of 1.3°C and 1.9°C more than the pre-industrial average between 1850 and 1900.
There is an 86 per cent chance that one of the years in the period 2026-2030 could overtake 2024 as the warmest year on record. “There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Leon Hermanson, the lead author the report, in the press release.
Winters in the Arctic region between November and March could be much hotter than normal in the next five years. The average temperatures in the region in the period 2026-2030 “are predicted to be 2.8°C above average temperatures for 1991-2020, an anomaly more than three and half times that of global mean temperature anomaly over the same period,” said the press release. Arctic sea ice during March between 2026 and 2030 is going to reduce further, especially in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk.
According to the report, wintertime precipitation could increase in the higher latitudes and tropical regions while it may decrease in the sub-tropical areas as compared to the 1991-2020 reference, which is in keeping with the pattern expected in a warming climate. The reduction in precipitation could be much more pronounced in the southern hemisphere sub-tropical regions.
The report predicts the precipitation in the period of May to September in the next five years to be wetter than normal in Africa’s Sahel region, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia while drier than normal conditions are predicted for the Amazon region.
One of the years between 2026 and 2030 is also highly likely, with a 91 per cent probability of occurrence, to temporarily cross the global annual average anomaly threshold of 1.5°C. The threshold was also crossed in 2024 when global annual average temperature was 1.55°C above the average between 1850 and 1900.
There is also a 75 per cent chance that the five-year average global temperature for 2026-2030 may also cross 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average. “The 1.5°C (and 2.0°C) levels specified in the Paris Agreement refer to long-term warming sustained over an extended period, typically assessed over 20 years. Individual years with annual global mean temperatures exceeding these levels do not mean that the long-term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are out of reach,” said the statement.
“Temporary exceedances are expected to occur with increasing frequency as the underlying rise in global temperature approaches these levels,” according to the statement. “Confidence in forecasts of annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature is high since hindcasts show very high skill,” it added. But the report also cautioned that “the skill of inter-annual to decadal forecasts is different to that of weather and seasonal timescales and skill may vary considerably with region and season.”