Hurricanes are all set to become more frequent and intense in the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Oceans over the next 10 years, according to a study by the UK’s University of Reading.
This spells increased danger for coastal communities across North and Central America, according to a statement issued by the university on February 19, 2025.
A team from the university used the UK Met Office’s DePreSys4 climate prediction software and a specialised tracking algorithm to forecast future hurricane patterns.
Projected tropical cyclone numbers in the Atlantic could more than double compared to 1970s levels over the next decade, while East Pacific activity could increase by more than a third.
The total energy of these storms — which combines their frequency, strength and duration — is also predicted to increase dramatically. In the North Atlantic, storm energy could rise to twice its 1970s levels, according to the statement.
The predicted rise in hurricane is linked to ocean surface temperatures and wind patterns in the atmosphere.
As per the study, Atlantic Ocean temperatures are likely to be higher in the coming years, providing more energy for hurricanes to form and intensify.
“At the same time, changes in wind patterns — particularly how winds vary at different heights in the atmosphere — are expected to create more favourable conditions for hurricane development. These changes are driven by a combination of natural climate variations and longer-term climate trends,” the statement issued by the university noted.
It also claimed that the study marks a major advance in hurricane prediction by tracking individual storms within the model’s simulations, rather than relying on indirect indicators like sea level pressure or sea surface temperature patterns.
“While direct storm tracking is already used for short-term forecasts of days or months, this is the first time it has been successfully applied to predict hurricane patterns up to a decade ahead. This longer-term view gives communities unprecedented insight into future storm risks,” the statement noted.
The study, published this month in the journal npj climate and atmospheric science, is titled High prediction skill of decadal tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic and East Pacific in the met office decadal prediction system DePreSys4.
The authors are Paul-Arthur Monerie, Xiangbo Feng, Kevin Hodges & Ralf Toumi.