The recently published United Nations Emissions Gap Report shows that India was the global topper in absolute greenhouse gas (GHG) emission increase from 2023 to 2024. On a percentage scale, India’s increase was second only to Indonesia during the period. The findings, along with the fact that India has failed to submit its carbon emission cut plan within the September 30 deadline, is expected to put the country under the scanner at the 30th Conference of Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Brazil’s Belem, according to environmentalists.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report finds that the world is on course to a 2.8 degrees Celsius (°C) rise compared to pre-industrial era values, a timeline after which human-induced carbon emissions started to dominate.
The projected rise, towards the end of the century, is almost double compared to the 1.5°C global temperature rise target agreed at the Paris climate summit a decade back. It can put a large part of the world and its population under an existential crisis. India, with its large vulnerable population and long coastline, will suffer great impact as a consequence.
The report, a copy of which is with this correspondent, finds that China heads the total global emissions ladder, followed by the United States. India, with an addition of 165 million tonnes of GHGs during 2023-24, was the global topper in increase of annual emissions during last year, followed by China and Russia. India’s per capita emissions however remain the lowest among major economies, though on an upward curve.
The document also found that the emissions trajectory, despite repeated warnings from scientists and environmental experts, is rising in all major G20 economies except the European Union. Overall, the G20 countries recorded 22 million tonnes of emissions rise during 2023-24. The report, titled Off target, has been prepared with the help of around 40 scientists from 21 major scientific institutes across the world.
“Global temperatures are now predicted to reach 2.3-2.5°C based on full implementation of NDCs … (however) current policies in place put the world on track for 2.8°C of warming …,” reads the report. It also pointed out that the Donald Trump-driven proposed US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will cancel out part of the progress initially estimated.
“The global multi-decadal temperature average will exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily, due to lack of action and ambition from world leaders. Countries must take rapid and immediate action to keep overshoot (within limit) … giving us the best chance of returning to 1.5°C by 2100,” the report noted.
“Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target. While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough, which is why we still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP, while launching the report.
However, the global political commitment, at this critical juncture, hardly looks encouraging. That is because only a third of countries linked to the Paris Agreement, covering 63 per cent of emissions, submitted new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) within the September 30 deadline. NDCs are climate action plans submitted by countries as per the commitment to the Paris Agreement for reducing GHG emissions and adapting to climate change. These plans are updated every five years.
India has also missed deadlines to submit its NDC with the latest one passing on September 30, 2025.
“The report confirms that India is caught in a climate justice trap. While the country’s low per-capita emissions are a moral high ground, its rising total emissions, lack of proper reporting, and non-submission of an NDC 3.0 put the country in a tight spot,” said Harjeet Singh, a global climate activist and the founding director of Satat Sampada Climate Foundation.
“In all this, we must not ignore the real culprit: the failure of international climate finance. Developing countries are being asked to fund a transition they cannot afford, as international support fails to materialise at the scale required. The pressure on India in Belém will be immense, but it is a deflection from the fundamental broken promise of the Paris Agreement. Without finance, there is no just transition—only a deepening climate injustice,” added Singh.
“UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report is a wake-up call for India. While global projections show marginal improvement, the world remains far from Paris targets — and India, as a growing economy and major emitter, must urgently scale up ambition,” observed Anjal Prakash, a professor at the Indian School of Business (ISB), Hyderabad and one of the authors of UN climate reports.
Prakash pointed out that “India needs rapid deployment of renewables, accelerated coal phase-down, electrification of transport, energy efficiency, and robust methane and industrial emissions controls to ensure deep emission.” He added though that India needs predictable, scaled international finance and technology partnerships to fast-track transitions in industry, power and agriculture without compromising development goals.
“Limiting overshoot and returning to 1.5°C by 2100 will demand immediate, decisive action from Indian policymakers, businesses and finance — every avoided fraction of a degree reduces risks to millions, protects monsoon stability and strengthens economic resilience. India can lead by example: ambitious, equitable climate action now is both an imperative and an opportunity,” said Prakash.
Singh noted that “this emissions increase reflects India’s two-sided policy reality: our renewable energy growth is strong and on track to ‘overachieve’ our 2030 intensity goals; while our economy’s massive new energy demand is growing even faster, forcing a continued reliance on fossil fuels just to meet our development needs—all while our per capita emissions remain less than half the global average.”