India’s winter of 2026—January and February, as per IMD—passed with an unusual absence of cold. An analysis of India Meteorological Department (IMD) data by Down To Earth (DTE) highlights how far conditions strayed from the norm. The IMD classifies a “cold day” as one when the maximum temperature is 4.5°C to 6.4°C below average; a deviation of over 6.4°C is deemed a “severe cold day”. A “cold wave” is declared when the minimum temperature falls 4.5°C to 6.4°C below normal, and a “severe cold wave” when the drop exceeds 6.4°C. India did not record a single cold day or cold wave in February. That marks a clear break from recent years. According to DTE analysis, February saw six cold-wave days in 2022, one in 2023, seven in 2024 and five in 2025. With the last such event recorded on January 27, February 2026 is the first in five years when a cold wave has not been recorded. The winter of 2026 has ended with 24 cold day or cold wave events across 15 states and UTs, making it the second-lowest seasonal total in five years, after 2023 which recorded 21 days. The figure is well below the spike of 38 days in 2024 and also lower than the 30 recorded in 2022 and 26 in 2025.
Winter severity is also shifting geographically. Between 2022 and 2026, cold waves largely remained concentrated in northern, northwestern and central India, though their spatial spread varied year to year, both in winter and post monsoon. In 2022, cold waves were recorded on 30 of 59 winter days across 14 states, with no impact in southern or southeastern India. The footprint widened in 2023 to 17 states—the highest in five years—even as the number of cold-wave days fell to 21. Two southern states, Telangana and Karnataka, reported such events, on two and four days respectively.
In 2024, the number of cold days or coldwave days rose to 38 of 60 winter days, but was confined to 13 states, again excluding the southern and southeastern regions. The spread narrowed further in 2025 to just nine states and UTs, with Telangana the only southern state recording a cold wave, on a single day. In 2026, the geographical reach of cold waves expanded again to 15 states—the second highest after 2023—with Karnataka being the only southern state affected. This reflects intermittent but limited southern penetration in an otherwise north-centric cold wave pattern.
Although IMD classifies January and February as winter, cold wave conditions typically begin in November and continue through December—both officially part of the post-monsoon season. However, IMD-classified winter accounts for the bulk of cold days and cold wave events. For instance, between 2022 and 2024, winter represented 65 per cent, 72 per cent and 67 per cent of annual totals, while post-monsoon months contributed only 28-35 per cent.
Analysis by DTE for 2022–2026 shows that cold wave events are no longer confined to core winter months, as illustrated by the sharp post-monsoon surge in 2025 driven by an early and widespread November. The shifting timing, along with expanding or contracting geographic spread, signals increasing variability in how cold extremes manifest across India.
An analysis of maximum and minimum temperatures in 34 cities shows a consistent trend of warmth between January and March. With the exception of Puducherry, for which baseline normal data is unavailable, all cities experienced day and night temperatures predominantly above normal. Between January 1 and March 17, some 23 cities recorded above-normal maximum temperatures on at least half of these days, while 30 cities recorded above-normal minimum temperatures on at least half (see ‘Clear pattern’). Analysis of records shows a clear trend: temperatures have been consistently above normal across cities from January to March, signalling an early onset of summer-like conditions and a marked compression of spring season in many parts of the country. Temperatures historically associated with peak summer were experienced prematurely and persisted through the so-called transitional months.
In the 10 cities with the most frequent above-normal maximum temperatures during winter, a normal day has become the exception rather than the rule. The trend is strikingly pan-Indian, spanning hill stations such as Srinagar and Shimla to the tropical coast of Panjim. In 10 Himalayan cities, cold conditions retreated, and nights were often warmer than days relative to historical norms. The warming at high altitudes was abrupt, marked by extreme temperature spikes that defied historical baselines.
In Itanagar city of Arunachal Pradesh, the night of January 13 saw a minimum of 17.6°C, compared with a normal of 9.8°C. Shimla of Himachal Pradesh, experienced dramatic swings on January 12, with the maximum reaching 17.2°C against a normal of 11.7°C, while minimum temperatures that day and the next were 8.8°C against a normal of 2.9°C. By January 16, the hill station’s maximum had climbed to 20°C, well above the normal of 11°C. Anomalies persisted into February and March. On March 4, maximum and minimum temperatures were 24.1°C and 13.6°C, compared with normals of 15.2°C and 6.1°C. On March 6, the maximum was 10.1°C above normal and the minimum 9.3°C above, with temperatures in the range of 23–24°C persisting through March 11.
At the traditional peak of winter, Himachal Pradesh experienced its earliest heatwave in five years. The state recorded heatwave to severe-heatwave conditions on March 6—the first time such sustained high temperatures occurred in the first week of March. By comparison, in 2025 the first heatwave arrived a month later, on April 6; in 2024, on May 19, some 74 days later. There were no heatwaves in 2023; and in 2022 the heat spell began on March 16, as many as 10 days later than in 2026.
Deshbandhu Sood, a 79-year-old resident of Shimla, says winters are becoming shorter and milder in the state. “Even two decades ago, people wore warm clothes until April,” he recalls. “Now, winter clothing is often put away by the second week of March.” Sudesh Kumari, another Shimla resident, notes that winters were once harsh: water would freeze, roads remained closed for days and power outages were common. “This year’s winter, with little snowfall, felt like May or June of three decades ago,” she says.
The shrinking season is beginning to affect daily life...
This article is an excerpt from the cover story "Fading winter" published in the April 1-15, 2026 print edition of Down To Earth. The cover story presents a detailed analysis on changing patterns of India's winter temperatures, forest fires and biodiversity cycles through data and ground reports