The winter season from January to February 2026 was remarkably dry across much of India, with rainfall about 60 per cent below average. Temperatures were also relatively mild across most regions, except in parts of eastern India where they remained closer to normal. This stood in contrast to December 2025, when large areas of central, eastern and southern India experienced cooler-than-normal conditions while northern India remained comparatively mild. December was also drier than usual in most parts of the country, except in parts of Jammu and Kashmir. Another notable feature this year has been how quickly conditions shifted from spring to summer across much of the country during March. It feels as if spring never arrived!
Dry winters in India are often linked to weaker or fewer western disturbances. When these weather systems are absent or weaker than usual, northern India, especially the Himalayan and adjoining hill states that are directly influenced by them, tends to experience both reduced precipitation and warmer conditions. In recent years, winters have increasingly featured both weaker precipitation and fewer intense cold spells than was historically typical.
Looking ahead, most major meteorological centres around the world indicate that El Niño conditions will develop later this year. Forecast skill at this time of year is often lower, but that does not mean forecasts are always uncertain when clear signals are present. At present, observations show a substantial amount of heat stored beneath the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This subsurface heat is an important precursor to El Niño development.
One way to visualise this is to imagine a pot of water heated from below. Heat first builds up at the bottom before gradually mixing upward and warming the surface. In a similar way, the Pacific Ocean can accumulate warm water beneath the surface. Over time, ocean currents allow this heat to rise and spread across the surface, at which point El Niño conditions begin to emerge.
For now, the ocean appears ready to initiate an El Niño, though the atmosphere has yet to fully respond. El Niño is what scientists call a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. In simple terms, the ocean and atmosphere must work together for the event to fully develop. The ocean may show clear warming signals, but the atmosphere must also shift its wind patterns and circulation in ways that support and amplify that warming. Climate models suggest that this warming will strengthen over the coming months, with the atmosphere gradually responding to these oceanic changes. The latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center at the US’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates more than an 80 per cent chance of El Niño developing this year, with roughly a one-in-three chance that it could become a strong event. Notably, the probabilities issued this March are considerably higher than those released at a similar time in years such as 2023, 2018, 2015, and 2014, when El Niño conditions eventually developed. This suggests that the current signals in the Pacific are relatively stronger and more coherent than those observed during the early stages of several past events.
The fact is that global warming is raising sea surface temperatures across many ocean basins, including the Pacific. Because El Niño is defined by sea-surface temperature anomalies, this background warming can sometimes make the signal more complex than it was in the past. To separate the natural climate signal from the broader effects of climate change, scientists are increasingly using improved methods to detect and monitor El Niño events that account for long-term ocean warming.
Given the current level of subsurface heat and other indicators, it seems unlikely that the coming El Niño will be weak. There is a reasonable chance that it could develop into a moderate or even strong event, though much will depend on how conditions, especially in the atmosphere, evolve over the next few months.
A strong El Niño typically reduces the southwest monsoon's seasonal rainfall across India and tends to make the monsoon season warmer than normal. Some climate-model projections are already beginning to indicate this possibility. Another feature often associated with El Niño years is an increased likelihood of monsoon breaks, which can influence the overall distribution of rainfall during the season.
Even so, it is still too early to determine the month-by-month impacts with certainty. We need to monitor how the ocean and atmosphere evolve over the next few months. The onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala is sometimes delayed during El Niño years, though this is not always the case. A clearer indication of likely onset timing usually emerges closer to May 15.
Anthropogenic climate change is increasingly influencing the behaviour of the monsoon. One of its most noticeable effects is greater variability in rainfall within the monsoon season. This means rainfall tends to occur in shorter but heavier bursts, separated by longer dry spells. During El Niño years, this tendency may be further amplified, increasing the likelihood of longer or more frequent monsoon breaks, as seen in August 2023.
Akshay Deoras is Research Scientist at National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK