India will have a ‘normal’ southwest monsoon in 2025, private weather agency Skymet has forecasted.
The monsoon will be normal to the tune of 103 per cent (with an error margin of +/- 5 per cent) of the long period average (LPA) of 868.6 millimetres (mm) for the four-month-long period of June to September, Skymet said in a statement on April 8, 2025.
“La Nina this season was weak and brief, too. The vital signs of La Nina have started fading now. The occurrence of El Nino which normally corrupts the monsoon is ruled out. ENSO-neutral is likely to be the most dominant category during the Indian summer monsoon. The remnants of La Nina and ENSO-neutral together, will shield the monsoon from any egregious outcome. Preliminary forecast of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will work in tandem with ENSO for better monsoon prospects. Historically, ENSO-neutral coupled with positive IOD tended to produce a worthy monsoon. The second half of the season is expected to be better than the primal phase,” the statement quoted Jatin Singh, managing director, Skymet.
It added that besides ENSO, there were other factors influencing the monsoon. The IOD is neutral now and has the propensity to effectively turn positive before the start of the monsoon. ENSO and IOD will be synchronous and are likely to steer the monsoon in the safe margins.
Skyment added that the monsoon may “have a quiet start on account of the quick transition from La Nina to ENSO-neutral and gain enough pace halfway through the season”.
The agency also expects sufficiently good rains over western and south India, with Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh receiving adequate rainfall. Excess rainfall is likely all along the Western Ghats, especially over Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Goa. The Northeast and hilly states of North India are likely to observe less than normal rainfall during the season, as per the forecast.