On a tense day 9 at the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), pressure mounted on negotiators as the Brazilian Presidency pushed to gavel a new iteration of the Mutirão decision text — even as multiple blocs warned against any attempt to dilute hard-won agreements on transitioning away from fossil fuels (TAFFF). The message from the climate community was clear: the world is watching, and backtracking is not an option.
“The world is watching Belém for a clear sign that governments are rising to the urgency of the climate crisis and are determined to do better, together,” said Laurence Tubiana, the chief executive of the European Climate Foundation, who also serves as the European Union Climate Envoy and one of the architects of the Paris Agreement. “Citizens will not thank those who choose instead to reopen what has already been settled.”
Tubiana stressed that agreements reached at COP28 in Dubai and COP29 in Baku “are essential building blocks for delivering the Paris Agreement”, cautioning that “weakening them now would slow the transition and erode the trust that keeps multilateral climate cooperation alive.”
At the heart of the debate is whether COP30 will uphold the UAE Consensus, which, for the first time, saw countries agree to “transition away from fossil fuels”, and whether the Mutirão decision can strengthen implementation through a just, equitable and orderly phase-out.
“In Dubai, countries finally agreed to transition away from fossil fuels — ending a decade of ambiguity,” the European Union envoy said. “Alongside the goals to triple renewable capacity and double energy-efficiency improvements, this provides the direction needed to transform global energy systems.”
These signals, they added, are already influencing investment and national planning — and any weakening “would create uncertainty and disrupt the momentum behind the clean-energy transition”.
The Brazilian Presidency wants the new Mutirão draft finalised November 20, 2025, though negotiators acknowledge that key gaps will likely spill into November 21. The decision is expected to carry cross-cutting elements on energy transition, finance and trade.
“Those seeking to reopen past agreements are not just jeopardising specific texts — they are undermining the trust on which multilateral climate cooperation depends,” the European Union envoy warned. “Consensus agreements, reached after intensive negotiations and compromise on all sides, must be respected.”
Calling Mutirão an unusual approach, Shreeshan Venkatesh, global policy lead at Climate Action Network International, said: “So far what we have seen is that a lot of issues that were stalling progress are under the Presidency’s management. And we’re really hoping that if we get clarity on where the landing zones are on these issues, it will ease progress in all these other issues. We definitely don’t want to pit one thing as being important, and another thing as not being important — I don't think that’s helpful at all.”
A total of 82 countries from Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Pacific and Europe have demanded a roadmap for the transition as a key outcome of COP30.
Countries are pushing for a concrete process — potentially a roadmap or equivalent mechanism — to operationalise the global move away from fossil fuels, anchored in equity and justice.
But they are expected to face strong pushback from petrostates such as Saudi Arabia and other nations whose economies are heavily tied to fossil fuels. Because COP decisions must be made by consensus, even a small group of dissenting states could block the proposed roadmap.
Civil society groups noted that some developed countries flirting with weaker language are simultaneously expanding fossil-fuel production at home and driving new extraction in developing countries.
The Just Transition Work Programme, which ministers discussed on 19 November, is emerging as the institutional home for implementing the shift. “A mechanism is needed to enable coordination, support, and guidance for a just transition,” one negotiator said. “This is the home that we see for just transition.”
The G77 plus China, at the start of negotiations, called for a new Just Transition mechanism.
Civil society representatives strongly defended China’s contribution to global climate action, arguing that the country has already delivered more on the energy transition “than most developed countries”, including through the Belt and Road Initiative.
“There is no energy transition, no effective climate action without China’s support,” one representative said. China, they emphasised, remains indispensable for developing-country unity within the G77.
At a separate press conference, European Union climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra urged parties to reinforce ambition, acknowledging the intensifying climate emergency.
“We are coming dangerously close to truly destructive tipping points,” Hoekstra said, stressing that the European Union intends to deliver fully on every element of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), including adaptation.
He highlighted wide-ranging consultations — from Palau to China, South Korea to Colombia — noting a strong desire to make COP30 a success.
On the proposed global roadmap, he was unequivocal: “We very much like it… whether we’re going to call it a roadmap or use different wording is secondary.” The European Union aims for a 90 per cent emissions reduction by 2040 and sees value in expanding global support for a structured fossil-fuel transition.
Climate finance, he said, is at “the very heart” of discussions with the Global South: mitigation alone “will no longer be able to do the trick”.
Lidia Pereira, head of the European Parliament’s COP30 delegation, said this must be “the COP of implementation”.
“We have brought ambition and want to return to Europe with a true commitment on implementation,” she said, noting that the European Union’s 2040 climate target has now been approved.
On fossil fuels, she was direct: the Parliament is focused on phasing them out. “In Europe it is possible to decarbonise and grow,” she said, pointing to the Green Deal, Climate Law and Fit for 55 as evidence that climate action can drive prosperity.
Hoekstra also reaffirmed Europe’s defence of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), calling it “pivotal” for preventing carbon leakage and ensuring climate action remains viable.
The Brazilian Presidency is pushing for closure on the Mutirão text today, but negotiators privately admit that the most contentious issues — fossil fuels, finance and trade — will require intensive work until at least November 21.
The fight now is not just over words, but over whether COP30 strengthens or fractures global trust at a defining moment in climate diplomacy.
At COP27 in Egypt, India was among the first nations to call for a global commitment to transition away from fossil fuels. It also played a key role in securing progress on the landmark Global Stocktake outcomes at COP28 in the United Arab Emirates.
India, representing groups such as BASIC and the Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDC), acknowledged Brazil’s Mutirão package on November 10 while arguing that the text needs strengthening to mandate concrete action and scaled-up public finance, not just further dialogue. India’s key concerns include the weak emphasis on developed countries’ legal obligations for public finance, the over-reliance on private finance, and the need for a clear definition of climate finance and progress on the Global Goal on Adaptation.
According to Madhura Joshi, programme lead for the Asia hub at E3G: “At COP30, the Brazilian Presidency’s Mutirão package—especially the proposed dialogue on transitioning away from fossil fuels—is a much-needed step toward urgently operationalising action, aligned with nationally determined policy pathways and finding common solutions to get there. India has consistently sought to be part of the solution and uphold multilateralism, and its support and engagement in the TAFF dialogue will be critical.”