A new report released by the Government of New Zealand has painted a grim picture about climate change in the South Pacific country.
“Our Atmosphere and Climate 2026 brings together data, indicators and scientific evidence from across New Zealand to provide an independent picture of how the climate is changing, and what those changes mean for people, places and ecosystems,” a statement by the country’s Ministry for Cities, Environment, Regions and Transport noted on October 7, 2026.
The report stated that “Human activities, including emissions and land-use change, are continuing to increase concentrations of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These changes are driving increases in temperatures across New Zealand. Increased temperatures change weather patterns and rainfall. Some areas are expected to experience more rainfall and others less. Warming also interacts with global weather patterns such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.”
According to the report, New Zealand’s annual average temperature has risen by 1.36 degrees Celsius since measurement began in 1909, with 7 of the 10 warmest years on record occurring in the last decade (2016 to 2025).
Between 1972 and 2025, average temperatures were very likely increasing at 26 of 30 sites in spring, 25 sites in summer, 25 sites in autumn, and all 30 sites in winter.
“New Zealand’s air temperature is very likely to warm by between 0.75 degrees Celsius and 1.2 degrees Celsius above the average temperature between 1995 and 2014 by the middle of the century (high confidence) under low and high climate scenarios respectively. By the end of the century, warming will reach between 0.8 degrees Celsius and 3.2 degrees Celsius above the same baseline (high confidence),” the analysis stated.
The greatest increases, it highlighted, will likely be seen in summer, with warming projected to be greatest “at higher elevations (high confidence)”.
Worryingly, heatwaves will very likely increase in frequency, length and intensity across the country, with particularly strong effects across the northern half of the North Island.
New Zealand, whose South Island boasts of the Southern Alps, is rapidly losing glacial mass, according to Our Atmosphere and Climate 2026.
“New Zealand’s glacier ice volumes peaked in 1997 at 56 cubic kilometres, and have since decreased to 30 cubic kilometres in 2023. Total ice volume decreased 6.5 percent between April 2022 and March 2023…Models of glacier retreat estimate New Zealand glaciers will very likely lose between 14 and 86 percent of their volume by 2100 under the low climate scenario, and between 69 and 100 percent under the high climate scenario, compared with 2015 glacier volumes (high confidence),” the document noted.
Consequently, the seas around the country are rising.
“Absolute sea-level rise (the change in sea level independent of land movement), is projected to exceed 20 centimetres above the average of 1995 to 2014 levels between 2045 and 2050, depending on the climate change scenario (high confidence). Sea-level rise relative to land will continue to be highly variable in New Zealand, as there are many areas experiencing either land subsidence or uplift (high confidence),” noted the report.
Sea-surface temperatures around New Zealand are projected to increase 1 to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the average 1982 to 2022 temperatures by mid-century, with increasing marine heatwave intensity, according to the assessment.
“This increase is projected with little difference between low and high climate scenarios (high confidence). By the end of the century, temperatures are projected to increase by about 1 degree Celsius (low climate scenario) to up to 3 degrees Celsius (high climate scenario) (high confidence). Coastal bottom waters are also projected to increase about 0.5 to 1.0 degrees Celsius by mid-century (medium confidence),” the report added.
It highlighted that the atmosphere around and over New Zealand has become more humid over the past decade. Warmer surrounding seas contribute to warmer, more humid air, and weather patterns over the surrounding oceans influence how moisture is transported over the country.
Annual rainfall between 1960 and 2025 increased at many sites in the southern South Island. Of the sites where rainfall decreased, many were in the northern half of the North Island.
“By 2090, annual rainfall is projected to decrease across much of the North Island, particularly in the north and east, and in the north and east of the South Island. Rainfall is projected to increase in the west and south of the South Island (medium confidence),” noted the report.
The number of wet days (those with more than 1 millimetre of rain) and consecutive wet days annually will likely decrease across the North Island and eastern slope of the Southern Alps by the end of the century. “However, the average rainfall on wet days will likely increase in most areas, occurring across fewer days (medium confidence), while extreme rainfall will very likely increase,” it added.
According to the analysis, “models for rainfall intensity project an 8 to 28 percent increase in average annual maximum one-day rainfall compared to 1985 to 2014 levels by the end of the century, under a high climate scenario. The frequency of extreme rainfall events is also projected to increase for much of New Zealand, with 40 to 50 percent of locations projected to experience 1-in-10-year rainfall events twice as frequently by the end of the century. The most extreme projected events would resemble major historic storms such as Cyclone Bola (1988) and the May 1923 Canterbury storm, with potentially greater intensity as the climate warms”.
Atmospheric rivers too are likely to increase in frequency. The most extreme events may nearly double in frequency over the South Island within decades. “Under the high climate scenario, moisture delivery by atmospheric rivers is expected to increase up to 20 percent by the end of the century (medium confidence).”
The document noted that “Storms originating as tropical cyclones are expected to occur at similar frequency to current observations (low confidence). However, the intensity of rainfall associated with these cyclones is likely to increase 15 to 55 percent by the end of the century under a high climate scenario, depending on the region (medium confidence).”
Worryingly, by 2050, approximately 38,000 to 55,000 square kilometres of New Zealand’s productive land is projected to experience an increased potential evapotranspiration deficit of at least 50 millimetres, depending on the climate scenario.
“By 2090, the projected area decreases to approximately 31,000 square kilometres under a low climate scenario, reflecting lower climate impacts under continued emissions reductions, but increases to approximately 95,000 square kilometres under a high climate scenario (medium confidence).”
Under both the low and high climate scenarios, wildfire weather conditions are projected to be more severe across many parts of New Zealand by 2100, with longer wildfire seasons and more days with conditions suitable for more severe fires.