A new climatology study finds Maharashtra is facing a sharp rise in compound drought and heatwave events, which now increasingly strike during the monsoon rather than just pre-monsoon.
Since 1990, both frequency and severity have intensified, with western and coastal districts such as Nashik, Thane and Raigad emerging as hotspots, demanding an urgent overhaul of climate adaptation strategies.
Compound Drought and Heatwave (CDHW) events—where bone-dry conditions and scorching temperatures collide—have intensified dramatically over the last three decades, transforming Maharashtra’s climate landscape, according to a new study.
The research, published in the International Journal of Climatology, warns that these “double-hit” extremes are no longer just summer threats; they have fundamentally shifted their behaviour, increasingly invading the traditional monsoon season.
Researchers assessed district-scale CDHW events across Maharashtra during 1960-2025, using gridded temperature and rainfall datasets to capture fine-scale spatial variability. They found that 1990 was a critical turning point as the state has recorded pronounced intensification in both the frequency and severity of these compound events since then.
“During the pre-1990 period, pre-monsoon frequencies were generally lower and spatially confined, with most western and coastal districts like Thane, Nashik, Raigad recording fewer than 15 events, while relatively higher occurrences were limited to eastern districts such as Gadchiroli, Chandrapur and Bhandara,” the study said.
The severity of these events has shifted geographically. Researchers noted a clear westward amplification of severity post-1990, with districts like Nashik, Sindhudurg, Thane, and Raigad bearing the brunt of more intense conditions. Scientists attribute this shift to the enhanced warming of the Arabian Sea, which is modulating coastal heat and moisture in new, dangerous ways.
Nashik, Yavatmal, Amravati, and Jalgaon have been identified as primary hotspots for recurrent stress. These regions exhibit shorter “joint return periods” — often less than 8 months, indicating that they are hit by these compound extremes with exhausting regularity compared to the northern or eastern parts of the state, the authors said.
The paper added that in contrast, the post-1990 period shows a substantial increase, with districts such as Gondia and Yavatmal recording frequencies exceeding 25 events.
“The monsoon season exhibits the most pronounced intensification, transitioning from predominantly moderate frequencies in the pre-1990 period to widespread high frequencies (> 25–35 events) post-1990 across most of the state. Notable hotspots include Raigad and Thane, where frequency exceeds 35 events. This indicates that precipitation deficits do not solely govern CDHW occurrences; rising temperature alone can amplify their occurrence. In contrast, the post-monsoon season shows consistently low frequencies in both periods, with minimal spatial variation and no marked temporal change,” the authors said.
Furthermore, “Extreme” CDHW events during the monsoon—previously rare—have surged in districts such as Nanded, Hingoli, Parbhani, and Gondia, which now record more than nine such events.
The study said the most alarming “new” pattern identified is the seasonal asymmetry of these extremes. With heatwaves expected primarily in the summer (pre-monsoon), the study found that the monsoon season has emerged as the dominant period for compound stress.
The authors also revealed that the average duration of these events has remained relatively stable which indicates that Maharashtra is not necessarily facing “longer” droughts, but rather a barrage of frequent, high-intensity “episodic hits”.
According to the paper, droughts conventionally viewed as a failure of rain is no longer the scenario as rising temperatures alone are now capable of triggering and amplifying these compound events even during the monsoon.
This positive feedback loop—where high temperatures dry out the soil, which in turn spikes surface temperatures—is making the state increasingly vulnerable to “persistent dry-hot climate anomalies”.
“Climate extremes are no longer occurring in isolation. Rising temperatures are increasingly overlapping with rainfall deficits, creating compound events that have much greater impacts on agriculture, water availability and ecosystems than droughts or heatwaves occurring separately,” said Vikas Poonia, assistant professor and Head of the Hydro-climatology Lab, Department of Civil Engineering, Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology (MANIT), Bhopal.
The shift is particularly evident during the southwest monsoon. Traditionally regarded as the state’s primary rainy season, the monsoon is now witnessing a growing overlap between rainfall deficits and unusually high temperatures. The findings suggest that rising temperatures are amplifying drought conditions even during the season that provides most of Maharashtra’s annual rainfall, Poonia said.
The researchers concluded that these shifting patterns require a total overhaul of climate adaptation. By identifying these specific district-level hotspots, the study provides the scientific backbone for Heat Action Plans (HAPs) and drought preparedness strategies that are tailored to the unique, evolving threats facing each part of Maharashtra.