There is an age-old saying in the Odiya language: Jala bihune srusti nasha, jala bahule srusti nasha, which means too much and too little water destroys creation. This holds true for the coastal district of Kendrapara, Odisha.
Eleven districts in India, including Kendrapara, face a ‘very high’ risk of both floods and droughts, revealed a pan-India climate risk assessment, commissioned by the Department of Science and Technology (DST) under the central government in collaboration with the Swiss Development Council. The report was prepared by the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) Mandi, IIT Guwahati and the Centre for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP), Bengaluru.
The assessment, titled District-level Climate Risk Assessment for India: Mapping Flood and Drought Risks Using the IPCC Framework, analysed 698 districts for climate risks, providing detailed profiling of flood and drought hazards, exposure and vulnerability. But do the districts have pathways to address these dual climate risks?
The study categorises 51 districts as having ‘very high’ flood risk and 118 as ‘high’ flood risk. Similarly, 91 districts fall into the ‘very high’ drought risk category, with another 188 categorised as ‘high’ risk. While 85 per cent of drought-prone districts are concentrated in 13 states, the majority of flood-prone districts lie within seven states.
The assessment used indicators based on flood and drought probabilities from 1970–2019, exposure to these hazards and systemic vulnerability. Districts were subsequently classified into five risk categories: ‘very high’, ‘high’, ‘medium’, ‘low’ and ‘very low’. This exercise reflects a shift in governance priorities under the NDA government, moving from the UPA-1 focus on the poorest 150 districts to addressing climate risk.
Due to its high population density, predominantly agrarian and rural society and geographical location, Kendrapara has long been highly vulnerable to climate breakdown. This is not the first time the district has been flagged in a national climate risk assessment. In 2017, Kendrapara topped the Composite Vulnerability Index for areas closest to the coastline.
In addition to tropical cyclones and resultant flash floods, the district faces seasonal floods, storm surges, droughts, heatwaves, lightning strikes, coastal erosion and sea level rise. According to the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) of the National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), the vulnerability of its 48-kilometre-long coastline ranges from ‘high’ to ‘low’.
Three major rivers — Mahanadi, Brahmani and Baitarani — along with their distributaries and natural streams, form a unique drainage system in the district. However, anthropogenic pressures such as land use changes and climate change over the past few decades have made floods a recurring problem.
Severe floods occurred in the district in 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013 and 2020. In contrast, no major droughts have been recorded for the district in recent years.
Risk assessments enable state governments to prepare proactively, allocate resources and design effective programmes. Odisha’s second State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) (2021–2030), formulated in 2018, includes several structural and non-structural interventions to mitigate and adapt to climate emergencies.
Additionally, the 2019 State Disaster Management Plan prioritises disaster management across prevention, mitigation, preparedness, rehabilitation, reconstruction and recovery. However, these measures are not adequately reflected in Kendrapara’s hurriedly prepared and technically flawed District Disaster Management Plan (DDMP) for 2022–23, which appears to be a bureaucratic formality rather than a robust response strategy.
The first DDMP for Kendrapara was prepared in 2004 under a joint programme by the UNDP and the Government of India. Since then, updates have been made in accordance with the Disaster Management Act, 2005.
The SAPCC identifies sectoral gaps in climate change responses, particularly in agriculture, forestry and water resources. Enhancing technical capacities and strengthening institutional efficiency are critical, alongside empowering farmers, water users and communities with knowledge on climate change adaptation.
Initiatives such as village-level seed banks, as proposed in the SAPCC, must be implemented. Traditional seed protection methods should be documented and promoted.
Now, considering the combined flood and drought risks, structural interventions must be carefully prioritised and implemented without compromising the district's ecological sensitivity. An urgent need exists for the de-siltation of the Brahmani and Mahanadi river systems, including their tributaries below the delta and for the creation of storage and flood moderation structures within the rivers to manage and channel floodwaters.
De-siltation would ensure minimum water availability during the dry season and help to mitigate and moderate the impacts of flooding during the monsoon.
Rehabilitating the British-era Jenapur and Jokadia barrages on the Brahmani River is essential, alongside a detailed assessment of the River Gobari for cautious interventions. Although Brahmani floods are now less frequent, extreme rainfall could trigger severe delta flooding.
Dense population, encroachments, and soil extraction for brickmaking have exacerbated the challenge of evacuating floodwaters, making it vital to expedite the completion of the Madanpur Cut at Rajnagar.
Other interventions, such as rehabilitating and lining irrigation canals, constructing cascade reservoirs and strengthening embankments, must be undertaken cautiously. Improved flood forecasting and warning systems should involve active participation from farmers and communities. Nature-based solutions, including afforestation along riverbanks to prevent erosion, should be implemented with community engagement.
Rainwater harvesting and the renovation of water bodies in the district could recharge groundwater and make agriculture more drought-resistant. Incentives should be provided to homeowners to install rainwater harvesting structures. It is essential to begin with mandatory rainwater harvesting systems in all government-owned buildings — existing, proposed and under construction.
Additionally, permissions and licences for groundwater extraction in the district must be reviewed in light of declining groundwater levels and the risks of drought. A moratorium should be imposed immediately on the extraction of fertile topsoil from arable lands in flood zones in Kendrapara.
The DDMP 2022-23 must be reviewed and updated to account for both flood and drought risks. The Disaster Management Act of 2005 mandates that the DDMP be reviewed and updated annually.
Alongside this, an independent evaluation of completed programmes and schemes — such as panchayat plantations, My Pond and other ecological regeneration activities under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme — should be conducted to identify gaps and challenges for future DDMP initiatives. Comprehensive awareness and training programmes targeting communities, farmers, women’s groups and youth should be planned and prominently featured in the DDMP.
It remains to be seen how the administration will address the damage to standing crops caused by the rainfall in Kendrapara on December 20-21.
Despite warnings from authorities advising farmers to harvest their paddy crops two days before the rains, many were unable to do so in time, losing their sole annual source of food and income. This highlights persistent shortcomings in early warning communication, preparedness and fostering behavioural change between the administration and the people.
Avilash Roul is international advisor, Transboundary Rivers and Climate Change Risk, GIZ
Views expressed are the author’s own and don’t necessarily reflect those of Down To Earth