Rajasthan recorded 154% excess rainfall by June 10, 2026, even before the southwest monsoon formally reached the state.
Eastern Rajasthan received 207% excess rainfall, with the state recording 19.1 mm of rain between June 1 and June 9 against the normal 7.5 mm.
Four of Rajasthan’s 10 wettest monsoon seasons have occurred since 2019, indicating a rise in extreme rainfall years.
In 2025, Rajasthan received 715.2 mm of monsoon rainfall, 64% above normal and the second-highest since 1901.
Western Rajasthan, including large parts of the Thar Desert, recorded 69% excess rainfall in 2025, ranking as its sixth-wettest monsoon season in 125 years.
Meteorologists say the wet start to 2026 has been driven by a series of western disturbances, with more thunderstorms and rainfall forecast between June 11 and June 14.
Rajasthan has recorded 154 per cent excess rainfall than normal by June 10, 2026, while eastern Rajasthan has received 207 per cent excess rainfall. The unusual start to the season has renewed questions about whether the climate of India’s largest desert state is changing.
The state received 19.1 millimetres (mm) of rainfall between June 1 and June 9, compared to the normal 7.5 mm for the period. Although the monsoon has not yet reached Rajasthan, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) includes rainfall from June 1 onwards in its monsoon statistics.
The rainfall surge in 2026 is part of a larger trend. Four of Rajasthan’s 10 wettest monsoon seasons on record have occurred since 2019 (2019, 2022, 2024 and 2025), indicating that extreme rainfall events are becoming more frequent. Five of Rajasthan’s 10 wettest monsoon seasons have occurred between 2011 and 2025, with 2025 ranking second, 2024 fourth, 2022 eighth, 2011 ninth and 2019 tenth.
Between June and September 2025, Rajasthan received 715.2 mm of rainfall, compared to the normal 435.6 mm. The season ended 64 per cent above normal, making it the second-wettest monsoon in the state's history after 1917, when 844.2 mm of rainfall was recorded. The 2025 total also exceeded the 682.2 mm recorded in 1908.
Eastern Rajasthan received 1,010 mm of rainfall in 2025, far above its normal monsoon average of 626.6 mm. The total was 61 per cent above normal and the second-highest monsoon rainfall recorded in the region since 1901. Western Rajasthan, much of which falls within the Thar Desert, received 478 mm of rainfall in 2025, compared to its normal 283.6 mm. The region recorded 69 per cent excess rainfall, ranking as the sixth-highest monsoon rainfall season over the past 125 years.
The 2025 monsoon season started with exceptional rainfall. June recorded 128 mm of rain, making it the second-wettest June since 1901. July received 287.1 mm, making it the third-wettest July on record.
According to the IMD's Monsoon 2025 report, rainfall during June, July, August and September stood at 133 per cent, 78 per cent, 118 per cent and 182 per cent of the long-term average, respectively.
The impact was widespread as of Rajasthan’s 33 districts, 20 recorded rainfall that was 60 per cent or more above normal, placing them in the "large excess" category. Another 12 districts received rainfall that was 20 to 59 per cent above normal, categorised as "excess". Only one district remained within the normal rainfall range.
Baran district received 1,593.5 mm of rainfall in 2025, the highest in the state and 92 per cent above normal. Sawai Madhopur followed with 1,333.1 mm, which was 102 per cent above normal.
The trend has intensified since 2020. Analysis of rainfall patterns during the 2010s and 2020s shows that only 2014 and 2018 recorded normal or below-normal rainfall, while most other years witnessed above-normal rainfall. Both 2011 and 2019 recorded rainfall 41 per cent above normal, with 2019 entering Rajasthan’s list of the 10 wettest monsoon seasons on record.
Meteorologists say the state’s wet start to 2026 has been driven by a series of western disturbances. One system remained active during the last week of May, while another became active on June 3 and influenced weather conditions until June 6–7.
On June 10, the state weather department forecast that another western disturbance would become active from June 11, increasing the likelihood of thunderstorms and rainfall across many parts of Rajasthan. The department has forecast thunderstorms with winds of 50–60 kmph and light-to-moderate rainfall between June 11 and June 14 in parts of the Bikaner, Jaipur, Ajmer and Bharatpur divisions.
Rajasthan’s rainfall surge has occurred despite forecasts suggesting that the 2026 monsoon could be weaker than normal across India, making the state’s rainfall anomaly even more remarkable.
The trend suggests that Rajasthan's monsoon is becoming increasingly erratic and extreme, with years of excessive rainfall occurring more frequently than in the past. While it is too early to draw firm conclusions about a long-term climatic transformation, the growing number of exceptionally wet monsoon seasons points to a notable shift in the state's rainfall patterns.