“If the lipi bird (common swift or Apus apus) makes its nest larger than usual, it is an indication that the rainfall in the coming season will be feeble. The vice versa is also true,” said Ashok Munda, gram pradhan (village head) of Chitramu village in Jharkhand’s Khunti district. “There are many such signs that help us assess and prepare for the coming season,” he added.
Since time immemorial, tribal communities of Jharkhand have kept track of the weather in their area through reading what Munda calls “signals of nature”. Quite a few of these signals pertain to the monsoon, which is understandable considering the season’s importance in rainfed agriculture practices of tribal communities. Sample the following cases.
A day before Sarhul — a nature festival celebrated in the month of Chaitra (March-April), the first month of the year as per the Hindu calendar — two earthen pots are filled with water up to a marked level and then checked the next day. If the water level has decreased, it indicates less-than-normal rainfall during the monsoon, while no change in the level reflects that the rain will be normal. Similarly, on the day of Karma festival — celebrated in July-August — a basket made of bamboo is hung through a rope and bamboo stick. It is believed rainfall will continue till the rope breaks.
“Flowers are a great sign of rain too. If the spacing between amaltas (Cassia fistula), which flowers in April-June, is more than usual, it means the rain will be good,” said Khushmaren Ekka, upmukhiya (deputy village head), Raidih village, Gumla district.
On the other hand, sighting of kaash flowers (the flowers of kans grass or Saccharum spontaneum) around the border of the agricultural field indicates that the rainy season is about to end. “Such rainfall indicators help us prepare for the season. We can even sow depending on the rain assessment,” said Arjun Madla, a government school teacher from Aranda village in Gumla.
There are short-term rain indicators as well. If black ants are seen moving their eggs, it indicates an imminent heavy rain. An unnaturally red sky during sunrise, too, indicates heavy rainfall by evening. Then there are crop-related indicators. “A good tamarind crop (harvested in January-April) is actually bad news because it means a drought year,” said Rani Tuti of Siladon village, Khunti. If the summer months are preceded by heavy rain and hailstorms, it indicates the mango yield will be good.
There are indicators of phenomena other than rain. A good flowering of palash (Butea monosperma) in February-March indicates that the summer will be harsh, with loo (hot winds).
“These prediction patterns and methods have been documented over centuries by these communities on the basis of their observations as these patterns repeat every year. But there may not be a scientific basis for these beliefs and weather prediction methods,” said Ranendra Kumar, an author and retired director of Dr Ramdayal Munda Tribal Welfare Research Institute, Ranchi.
These traditional methods of weather prediction have begun to falter due to erratic rain patterns. “Nowadays, rains come early and recede before time, making prediction difficult. Paddy crops do not get adequate water and we are forced to grow hybrid varieties that require less water,” said Devi Mahto of Kumkuma village, Khunti. Rising temperature, too, has had an impact.
“Higher temperatures are affecting behavioural and physiological responses of animals and plants that tribal communities use as ecological indicators. For example, frogs and crickets, whose sightings were used to predict rain by the Munda tribe, are impacted by temperature fluctuations, leading to changes in their breeding cycles and vocalisations,” said Eklavya Prasad, managing trustee of Megh Pyne Abhiyan, a public charitable trust that works in Bihar and Jharkhand.
“We always had rain on the day of the Ranchi’s famous Rath Yatra in June and the Manda Puja in March-April. The festivals indicate the onset of the sowing season. However, in the past few years, there has been no rain on such days. I wonder if we can keep relying on traditional indications,” said Ram Lal Munda of Burju village, Khunti. “It seems our ecological knowledge is being challenged by nature itself. We now need to rely on modern methods of weather prediction,” said Suman Kujur, accredited social health worker (asha) facilitator for Raidih block, Gumla.
This story was first published in the June 16-30 print edition of Down To Earth.