Clear sky, reduced cold northern winds, and weak western disturbances caused rapid daytime heating in February 2026, with Delhi hitting 31°C—3-5°C above normal. March continued this with absent precipitation, strengthening anti-cyclonic circulation over western India trapping heat, leading to 5°C above-normal temperatures and early summer-like conditions. The IMD forecasts above-normal heat through May 2026, driven by low moisture and cloud cover.
India has seen frequent warmer winters recently, with 10 of the 15 warmest years in the last 15, including 2025 as the eighth warmest since 1901. Winters warmed overall since 1970, especially February (up to 3°C in Jammu & Kashmir), shortening spring as cold transitions abruptly to summer warmth. This pattern, with fewer cold wave days, signals climate change altering seasonal cycles via rising minimum temperatures over decades.
India traditionally has four seasons: winter (December-February), summer/pre-monsoon (March-May), monsoon (June-September), and post-monsoon (October-November). Warmer winters and vanishing springs suggest compression, but not yet a full shift to just summer-monsoon; winters persist erratically, though shorter and milder. Climate trends indicate longer summers and shifting rains, but monsoon remains distinct due to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) dynamics.
Himalayas have been warming faster, with declining winter snowfall (“snow drought”) over five years, rapid snowmelt, and glacier loss from global warming and black carbon from plains. Reduced Himalayan snow weakens cold wave generation and northern chill advection to Indo-Gangetic plains, contributing to milder plains winters. Feeble westerlies exacerbate this, indirectly raising plains temperatures by limiting cooling precipitation.
Anjal Prakash is a Clinical Associate Professor (Research) and Research Director at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy, at the Indian School of Business. He has also been actively involved with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change