NOAA’s latest update says there is an 82% chance of El Niño developing between May and July 2026.
Early projections suggest the event could become strong or very strong by the end of the year, with conditions likely to continue into early 2027.
Some models forecast the Ocean Niño Index crossing 3°C, a level reached only once before, in January 1878, according to NOAA data analysed by Down To Earth.
Scientists say a powerful El Niño could increase risks of heat, drought, wildfires, coral bleaching and pressure on agriculture, food security and public health.
While the world is better prepared than during the historic 1876-78 event, experts warn institutions may be stretched and need sufficient resources.
The world may be heading towards one of the strongest El Niño events ever recorded, with unusually rapid warming in the Pacific Ocean raising fears of extreme heat, droughts and weather disruptions across several regions. Forecasters say there is an 82 per cent chance of El Niño developing between May and July this year, while early projections from the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggest it could intensify into a very strong event by the end of the year — comparable to the devastating 1877 El Niño, one of the strongest on record.
Current projections indicate the 2026 El Niño could match or even exceed the intensity of the 1876-1878 event, while giving a 96 per cent probability that conditions will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter from December 2026 to February 2027, stated NOAA’s latest update.
El Niño is the warmer-than-normal phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. During El Niño, sea surface temperatures in this region become unusually warm because of a weakening of trade winds. The warming causes evaporation, moisture build-up and rainfall in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, while suppressing rainfall over Australia and the Maritime Continent.
Many regions around the world become drier than normal, while some become wetter. Global average temperatures generally increase, and many El Niño years have also been among the hottest years on record.
The previous El Niño of 2023-24 added to accelerated warming from greenhouse gas emissions and resulted in 2024 becoming the hottest year on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The strength of an El Niño event is measured using the Ocean Niño Index (ONI), which is the average of sea surface temperature anomalies over a particular region of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean known as the Niño 3.4 region.
When the ONI crosses 0.5 degrees Celsius (°C), an El Niño event is declared. When the ONI is between 0.5°C and 1°C, the event is categorised as weak. When it is between 1°C and 1.5°C, it is considered moderate.
When the ONI crosses 1.5°C, it is designated as a strong event. When it goes past 2°C, it is considered a very strong event. Events significantly above 2°C, such as those in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16, are also colloquially described as “super El Niño” events.
Comparisons have been drawn between the expected 2026 El Niño and previous super El Niño events, when the world experienced widespread dry and hot conditions, heatwaves, droughts, wildfires and coral bleaching.
Weather model predictions for the ONI of the 2026 El Niño show that it might surpass the strongest El Niño of 1876-78, which was one of the primary reasons for a global famine that killed around 50 million people.
The world was significantly different 150 years ago, and much cooler. The 2026 El Niño is occurring when the planet has already warmed by 1.4°C since the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900.
Between 1876-78 and 1982-83, there was only one other El Niño event that could be classified as a super El Niño, which occurred in 1888-89.
A research paper published in the Journal of Climate in December 2018 explored the causes behind the global droughts between 1875 and 1878 that led to famine across Asia, South America and Africa. There were record-breaking droughts in parts of both hemispheres across multiple seasons. Asian regions influenced by monsoon seasons suffered the most intense and second most extensive drought in 800 years, according to the paper.
A combination of the record-breaking El Niño event of 1876-78, a record-strong Indian Ocean Dipole in 1877 and record warming of the North Atlantic Ocean was found to be the cause of the global droughts and the resulting crop failures and famine in different regions.
The study also foreshadowed the possibility of a similar event occurring in a warming world.
While forecasts are pointing towards a possible super El Niño and impacts similar to the 1876-78 event, the world is better prepared than it was the last time.
Weather agencies, including the WMO, and international organisations such as the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Health Organization are now able to track the evolution of El Niño and forecast possible impacts on agriculture, food security and human health. This gives governments and communities the knowledge required to take preventive action.
But all institutions may also be stretched to their limits and will need to be sufficiently resourced.