New Nature study shows US greenhouse gas emissions caused over $10 trillion in global economic damage since 1990.
As the largest historical emitter, US is responsible for substantial climate-related losses.
This highlights the need for accountability and international cooperation in addressing climate change.
The United States (US) has caused more than $10 trillion in global economic damage since 1990 through its greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new study published in the journal Nature.
As the largest historical emitter of carbon dioxide, the US is responsible for about $10.2 trillion in cumulative climate-related economic damages worldwide through 2020, making it the biggest contributor to global losses linked to rising temperatures.
Around 30 per cent of the economic damage linked to US emissions , roughly $2.97 trillion, occurred within the United States itself, while about 14 per cent ($1.39 trillion) affected the European Union, the two regions that experienced the largest total GDP losses.
For India, the estimated damage from US emissions amounts to around $500 billion and for Brazil, about $330 billion, according to the research.
“These are huge numbers,” said Marshall Burke, an environmental scientist at Stanford University who led the study. Burke added that the US has “a lot of responsibility, our emissions have caused damage not only to ourselves, but pretty substantial damage in other parts of the world”.
Instead of taking accountability, US has stepped back from several international climate commitments. On January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order initiating the country’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, marking the second time the US has moved to exit the accord. Under the treaty’s rules, the withdrawal formally took effect one year later, on January 20, 2026.
The administration also announced plans to halt US participation in related global climate initiatives, including financial commitments to international climate funds created under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process, arguing that such arrangements impose unfair economic burdens on the US.
China, currently the world’s largest emitter, ranks second with $8.7 trillion in attributed damages since 1990, followed by the European Union with about $6.4 trillion, the study found.
The study attempted to quantify the economic cost of “loss and damage”, a term used in climate negotiations to describe the harm societies face from rising global temperatures driven by fossil fuel use.
Researchers developed a framework linking national emissions to changes in global temperature and then to impacts on economic growth. Their analysis showed how even small increases in heat can gradually weaken productivity and economic output.
“If you warm people up a little bit, we see very clear historical evidence, you grow a little bit less quickly,” said Burke. “If you accumulate those effects over 30 years, you just get a really large change by the end of 30 years. It’s like death by a thousand cuts. And you have people being harmed who did not cause the problem, and that feels just fundamentally unfair.”
The study also estimated that the social cost of carbon — the economic damage caused by emitting one tonne of CO2 — was about $1,013, significantly higher than many government estimates.
Researchers found that damages from emissions continue to grow for decades. A tonne of CO2 emitted in 1990 generated about $184 in global economic losses by 2020, but is expected to cause around $1,840 in additional damages between 2021 and 2100, suggesting future impacts from past emissions could be roughly ten times larger than those already observed.
The analysis also highlighted the economic consequences of everyday activities. Taking one long-haul flight each year for a decade, for instance, would generate about $165 in global damages by 2020 and roughly $25,000 in damages by 2100, the study estimated.
Developing countries have long argued that wealthier nations, which produced most greenhouse gas emissions since the industrial revolution, should provide financial support to help poorer nations cope with worsening climate impacts such as heatwaves, floods, droughts and crop failures.
“Past emissions add up fast, and the damages from those emissions add up faster still,” said Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia Business School. “Paying the full social cost of carbon for future CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions pays for itself many times over.”