A new study on climate projections has set the alarm bells ringing all along the 11,000-km coastline of India, from Gujarat in western India to the Sundarbans delta in eastern India.
Azim Premji University’s recent study, titled Indian Coastal Region: Climate Projections 2021-2040, warns that by the year 2040, coastal districts in Gujarat and Maharashtra will receive considerably higher average rainfall in the southwest monsoon (SWM) season (June to September) compared to their historical levels.
Kachchh, a vast salt marsh desert in Gujarat, is projected to receive 31 per cent higher average rainfall in the SWM season by 2040, as compared to its historical level of 322 millimetres (mm) precipitation. Similarly, both Jamnagar and Devbhuni Dwarka districts are expected to receive 28 per cent higher rainfall.
In sharp contrast, average rainfall in the SWM season is projected to reduce in coastal Odisha and West Bengal in eastern India, including the Sunderbans. However, coastal Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, which generally receive more rainfall during the northeast monsoon season (October to December), are expected to receive excess rain in the SWM season, warns this new study by scientists at the School of Climate Change and Sustainability, Azim Premji University, Bengaluru.
“By using high-resolution data at a granular 25 x 25 km scale, this study provides precise climate projections that are essential for developing strategies to build climate resilience and adaptation. It aims to help various stakeholders make informed decisions in the face of climate change,” said Santonu Goswami, senior faculty at the School of Climate Change and Sustainability, Azim Premji University, during the launch of the study report in Mumbai on May 29, 2026.
According to Anurag Behar, CEO of Azim Premji Foundation, climate change is not some distant future challenge—it is the reality of today. “2040 is just 16 years away. This dataset brings to life the impacts of climate change with much greater immediacy, highlighting how we must restructure our infrastructure and governance to ensure we collectively address this crisis,” said Behar. Azim Premji University is a part of Azim Premji Foundation’s vision for social change.
The new study focuses on near-term projections (2021-2040) using CMIP6 model projections that have been corrected for regional bias to improve accuracy, said Goswami. CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) is the latest global framework for climate forecasting, combining data from over 30 international laboratories to create the world’s most accurate climate simulations. It allows scientists to “zoom in” on specific districts with much higher resolutions than ever before.
According to the recently released report, approximately 40 coastal districts are likely to see maximum summer average temperature rise by over 1 degree Celsius (°C) by 2040 with respect to the 1960s baseline. The west coast of India is expected to suffer the most.
Ernakulam district in Kerala is projected to have the maximum rise of 1.3°C in its maximum summer (average) temperature followed by Alappuzha (+1.2°C), Kozhikode (+1.2°C) and Kachchh (+1.2°C).
On the east coast, Tirunelveli in Tamil Nadu and Khorda in Odisha are projected to have the maximum rise of 1.1°C in their maximum summer (average) temperatures.
The Azim Premji University report also warns that coastal Kerala and Tamil Nadu are likely to experience high summer wet-bulb temperatures, touching 31 degrees Celsius (C), which is considered the threshold where dangerous heat stress begins for humans, even for healthy, resting individuals. Wet-bulb temperature measures how well the human body can cool itself through sweating. It accounts for both air temperature and humidity. When the air is humid, sweat evaporates slower, making a person feel much hotter than the standard (dry bulb) temperature reading.
“For decades, we treated climate change as a global abstraction—a problem of polar ice caps and distant centuries. But our findings show that for the Indian coastline, the crisis is hyper-local and immediate,” said Harini Nagendra, Director, School of Climate Change and Sustainability, Azim Premji University. “Whether it is the heat stress in Ernakulam or the rising salinity in the Sundarbans, our vulnerability is visible in all aspects of our daily lives,” she added.
India experiences two distinct monsoons each year — the SWM and the Northeast Monsoon (NEM). About 75 per cent of India’s total rainfall comes during the SWM and about 11 per cent in the NEM, which is also referred to as the winter monsoon or retreating monsoon.
Azim Premji University’s recent study has projected an increase in the average northeast monsoon rainfall in the west coast of India. It warns that “coastal Maharashtra and Gujarat will receive excess rain from the northeast monsoon in the near future [2040]”.
The projected increase in northeast monsoon rainfall in Gujarat is— Ahmedabad (44 per cent), Devbhumi Dwarka (39.3 per cent), Porbandar (33.7 per cent), and Kachchh (32.4 per cent). In Maharashtra, Mumbai City district is projected to have a 32.7 per cent rise in rainfall during the northeast monsoon season.
“The data in this report is a mirror that reflects a reality we can no longer afford to ignore… We have a short window of time to move from reactive mitigation to proactive adaptation—we need to craft a future that acknowledges the ecological challenges faced by our nation,” said Nagendra.