The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a warning for cold wave conditions over parts of north-western India from 30 December onwards. Over the past week, cold wave to severe cold wave conditions have been recorded in Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir.
On December 30, 2024, the IMD issued alerts predicting that states such as Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh could face severe cold. Rajasthan may also experience dense fog, reducing visibility to below 50 metres, while Uttarakhand could see heavy rainfall.
Cold wave conditions were first recorded in the country on 10 December, progressively leading to a sharp drop in temperatures accompanied by normal to heavy rainfall across many regions.
The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction defines a cold wave as a phenomenon where surface temperatures in an area fall below a certain threshold for at least two consecutive days.
According to the IMD, a cold wave is declared when minimum temperatures are 10°C or lower in the plains, or 0°C or lower in the hills, sustained over three consecutive days.
Experts attribute the current weather conditions to western disturbances, a series of cyclonic storms interacting with easterly winds. This phenomenon has caused dense fog and heavy rainfall, affecting northern, eastern, southern and north-eastern parts of India.
Kashmir has recorded its coldest winter in 50 years, with temperatures plummeting to -8.5°C. This period of frigid temperatures, known locally as Chillai Kalan, typically lasts from December 20 to January 30. The intense cold has frozen parts of the Dal Lake and water supply lines in the valley.
The national capital experienced its coldest December day in decades, with 41.2 mm of rainfall on 27 December — the highest single-day December rain since 1923.
Heavy rainfall in Odisha has destroyed crops, prompting the state government to step in. Authorities have pledged to purchase damaged produce from farmers, even if it falls below the Fair Average Quality standards.
The issue of accurate weather forecasting has become increasingly pressing in the era of climate change. IMD Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra acknowledged the challenges posed by climate change, stating:
“Climate change restricts forecasts. However, our accuracy for heavy rainfall predictions has increased from 60 per cent to 80 per cent in the last five years. We are taking steps to detect and predict even the smallest weather changes.”
In its December 29, 2024 press release, the IMD warned of potential disruptions to transport services, including trains, aviation and road networks, as well as power outages in the Delhi-NCR region. Dense fog could also pose health risks, including lung complications and eye irritation.
The IMD has forecast a further drop in temperatures by 2-3°C in central and eastern India over the next few days. Additionally, a fresh western disturbance is expected to bring more rain and snow to the western Himalayan region from 6 January onwards.