The city of Tampa on the western coast of the US state of Florida is in direct line of sight of a re-intensifying and growing major hurricane Milton which could bring possible catastrophic impacts.
Hurricane Milton’s exact impact, similar to hurricane Helene, in terms of peak wind speeds, associated storm surge along the coast, rainfall and inundation is currently difficult to predict because the characteristics it has shown in its short life span since its formation on October 5.
Just two weeks prior, the southeastern regions of the United States, including parts of Florida, were devastated by storm surges and extra ordinary rainfall from hurricane Helene leading to a loss of US$ 47.5 billion, as per media reports.
“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Centre (NHC) said on October 8.
The explosive and unexpected rapid intensification of Milton from a category 1 (119 km/hr to 153 km/hr) to a category 5 (>253 km/hr) hurricane within 12 hours on October 7 in the Gulf of Mexico is a tell-tale sign of much warmer than normal sea surface temperatures, itself an indication of global warming and consequent climate change.
“This explosive strengthening (of hurricane Milton) was fuelled in part by record to near record warmth across the Gulf of Mexico. The warmer the ocean is, the more fuel there is for hurricanes to intensify, provided other atmospheric conditions (like wind shear) are also favourable,” says NOAA’s climate.gov website.
The scarier part is that this unprecedented intensification of Hurricane Milton came as a surprise to weather forecasters.
“Hurricane Milton is undergoing one of the fastest rapid intensifications ever observed in the Atlantic. It is now a 155 mph Category 4 storm, just 2 mph shy of Category 5 status. Not a single weather model predicted the storm would strengthen this quickly,” Colin McCarthy, a weather analyst covering extreme global weather on his platform US Stormwatch, wrote on social media platform X on October 7.
Within a few hours, Milton reached its peak intensity of 290 km/hr (180 miles/hr), and 897 millibars of minimum pressure in its eye, making it the third strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic Ocean. It is also the strongest late season hurricane in Gulf of Mexico.
“Milton is the fastest Atlantic hurricane to intensify from a tropical depression to a category 5 hurricane, taking just over 48 hours,” National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) wrote on social media platform X.
After this, the hurricane showed some signs of weakening as it underwent an ‘eyewall replacement cycle’ which means that the storm is growing in size accumulating greater energy from the warm waters. As last updated Milton remains a fierce category 4 hurricane with winds of up to 240 km/hr (150 miles/hr).
“Milton has grown in size over the last 24 hours, with tropical-storm-force winds now up to 140 miles from its center. It will continue to grow even larger on approach to Florida, which means its impacts will affect a big area,” according to The Weather Channel on the evening of October 8.
Hurricane Milton may be making landfall along Florida’s western coast close to Tampa Bay between the late hours of October 9 and early hours of October 10 central daylight time (CDT), United States, according to the NOAA’s NHC.
The western coast of Florida may get inundated by a storm surge of up to 15 feet, the highest being in the Tampa Bay Area, and experience hurricane force winds to what degree is currently unspecified. Both the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of Florida are under storm surge warnings.
The rainfall in many areas of Florida may be as high as 300 mm to 400 mm with localised rainfall going as high as 460 mm, according to the NHC’s current forecasts.
The NHC is closely monitoring what is currently a monster hurricane with on ground and aircraft mounted radars and satellites to provide the best possible forecasts for people in the regions that would be affected