Climate crisis threatens 89 per cent of the world’s most iconic surf breaks as rising seas and coastal development put famous waves at risk. Among the threatened locations are Australia’s Noosa, California’s Santa Cruz, the UK’s Croyde beach and El Salvador’s Oriente Salvaje.
A new peer-reviewed study published in Climatic Change assessed 57 internationally significant surf breaks across eight countries.
It found that “while vulnerability profiles and variation within each risk factor are wide-ranging, high proportions of breaks are at risk due to their shoreline resilience (89% are medium or high risk), sensitivity to sea level rise (79% are medium or high risk), and seafloor composition (75% are medium or high risk).”
Surf breaks depend on a delicate combination of seabed formations, tides, sediment, and ocean swell. However, rising seas and shifting sands can fundamentally alter these conditions, while seawalls, jetties, and other coastal developments prevent beaches from naturally adapting.
The research showed how waves within the World Surfing Reserves network would be affected by various factors, including swell sensitivity, seafloor composition, shoreline resilience, and sea level rise.
World Surfing Reserves serve as a model standard for preserving wave breaks and their surrounding areas by recognising and protecting key environmental, cultural and economic attributes in coastal communities.
In total, 11 World Surfing Reserves from Portugal, Australia, Peru, Brazil, US, UK, El Salvador, and Costa Rica were analysed. The sites were selected because each is incorporated into a World Surfing Reserve — a status that local stakeholders apply for and an international non-profit organisation designates based on each site’s cultural, historical, and environmental significance for surfing.
Dan Reineman of California State University Channel Islands teamed up with Save The Waves and World Surfing Reserves to understand specific impacts of climate change on world class waves.
Teams of local experts at each site evaluated their surf breaks using the Surf Break Vulnerability to Climate Change Assessment Tool (SurfCAT). The tool assesses multiple risk metrics, including a surf break’s sensitivity to tide level, sediment transport, shoreline adaptability, swell corridor, and inclusion in adaptation planning.
Trent Hodges from Save the Waves Coalition and co-author explained that “essentially all surf breaks will undergo changes and impacts from climate change, but those impacts and risks will vary widely depending on a range of geophysical factors as well as the capacity for governments and coastal agencies to respond appropriately to the coming changes.”
Hodges pointed out that World Surfing Reserves have demonstrated in practice that a lot could be done right now to mitigate the threats in the future.
The researchers pointed out that similar risks exist for other surf breaks of global, regional, and local significance and that studies should assess their vulnerability and include the results in adaptation planning.
The study builds on the September 2025 report “Climate Vulnerability of California’s Natural Surfing Capital” in Santa Cruz, which found that all surf breaks in the World Surfing Reserve are highly vulnerable to sea level rise sensitivity.
The report estimated that surfing has an economic value of at least $194.7 million per year in Santa Cruz, CA with over 783,000 surf visits annually.