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Economy

Economic Survey sees critical minerals as new geopolitical chokepoints

Document emphasises building resilient supply chains and enhancing domestic capabilities in mining, processing, and manufacturing

Puja Das

The Economic Survey 2025-26, tabled during the winter session of Parliament on January 29, laid out a clear roadmap for India to navigate an increasingly fragmented global economy: one where strategic industries, critical minerals and climate imperatives are tightly intertwined. 

The Survey argued that India’s path forward must balance strategic autonomy with global integration, moving beyond compliance-driven frameworks to build resilient, affordable and inclusive supply chains.  

Way forward: Building capability, not just compliance

At the core of the Survey’s approach is a shift from passive participation in global value chains to active capability creation across mining, processing, manufacturing and recycling.

The Survey emphasises:

  • End-to-end value chain development in critical minerals, rather than remaining confined to raw material extraction.

  • Inclusive global frameworks that support technology transfer, financing and skill development for resource-rich developing countries.

  • Affordability as a policy anchor, warning that sustainability standards without parallel financial and technological support could slow the global energy transition. 

“A transition that is clean but unaffordable is neither rapid nor just,” the Survey noted, underlining the need for climate action aligned with development priorities.

National Mission on Manufacturing: Industrial backbone

To operationalise this vision, the Survey positions the National Mission on Manufacturing (NMM), announced in Budget 2025-26 as the foundational industrial policy framework for the next decade.

The Mission targets:

  • Raising manufacturing’s share in GDP from 12.9 per cent to 25 per cent by 2035

  • Creating 143 million jobs

  • Scaling merchandise exports to $1.2 trillion 

The NMM adopts a cluster-led, sector-specific approach, categorising industries into Scale, Fix and Transform, and Seed sectors, while addressing cross-cutting constraints such as ease of doing business, plug-and-play infrastructure, skilling, MSME integration and industrial housing.

Securing critical minerals for energy transition

Recognising critical minerals as the new geopolitical chokepoints, the Survey highlights the National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) as central to India’s energy and industrial security.

Key elements include:

  • Expanded auctions and private participation under amendments to the MMDR Act

  • Accelerated exploration by the Geological Survey of India

  • Overseas mineral acquisitions through KABIL, including lithium assets in Argentina

  • A Rs 1,500 crore incentive scheme for critical mineral recycling to reduce import dependence

Together, these measures aim to build supply chain resilience from exploration to end-of-life recovery.

India has also announced incentive schemes like recycling for critical minerals and rare earth permanent magnet manufacturing to build a stable domestic supply. This came in response to China’s export curbs on rare earth magnets last year.

Supporting strategic industries at scale

The Survey underscores the growing role of the state in nurturing strategic sectors through targeted incentives and risk-sharing mechanisms, even extending support to large industrial players where market failures persist.

Key interventions include:

  • PLI incentives for advanced chemistry cell battery manufacturing

  • Demand-side support under the PM E-DRIVE Scheme

  • Payment security for electric buses under PM e-Bus Sewa–PSM

  • The SMEC scheme to attract global EV manufacturers with phased domestic value addition commitments

These initiatives are designed to localise production, deepen domestic value addition and integrate India into global supply chains.

Challenges ahead

Despite these measures, the Survey flags significant risks:

  • Rising protectionism and strategic decoupling disrupting trade flows

  • Export controls on critical minerals and dual-use technologies

  • High compliance costs from ESG and traceability standards that may act as de facto trade barriers

The Survey cautions that narrowly defined standards could trap developing countries in low-value segments of supply chains while raising the cost of the global energy transition.  

Strategic autonomy with global integration

India’s approach, the Survey concludes, demonstrates that resilience does not require retreat. By combining domestic capability building with international partnerships such as the Minerals Security Partnership and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, India seeks to shape rather than merely adapt to the evolving geoeconomic order.

In an era where trade, security and climate policy increasingly converge, the Survey positions India’s industrial strategy as one that prioritises growth, inclusion and long-term competitiveness, without losing sight of global cooperation.