CREA report says China, India and Indonesia could peak coal power and emissions by 2030.
Together, the three nations account for nearly three-quarters of global coal use.
Rapid expansion of solar and wind power is driving the shift.
China’s power sector emissions have already begun to decline.
India and Indonesia could follow suit if clean energy growth continues.
A new analysis by nonprofit Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) has suggested that China, India, and Indonesia — the world’s three biggest coal growth markets — could see coal power use and emissions peak by 2030, in what the think tank calls a “global breakthrough” for climate action.
Together, these three nations accounted for 73 per cent of global coal consumption in 2024 and have been the largest contributors to rising carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions since the Paris Agreement. If realised, such a shift would mark the first time all major coal-dependent economies simultaneously curb fossil power growth, a change with far-reaching implications for global emissions and coal-exporting nations.
“China has already added enough clean electricity generation to cover all new demand, and its power sector emissions have been falling since early 2024,” Lauri Myllyvirta, CREA’s co-founder and lead analyst, said in a statement. “While occasional setbacks are possible, maintaining China’s current pace of clean energy growth means a coal power peak is imminent.”
China’s expansion in solar and wind energy has far outstripped expectations. In 2024 alone, the country added 277 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity, followed by another 212 GW in the first half of 2025. Wind additions also crossed 80 GW in 2024 and are expected to exceed 100 GW this year, making clean power the main driver of falling emissions.
In India, achieving Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030 would be enough to peak power-sector CO₂ emissions within a few years, CREA said. The country has already crossed the halfway mark towards that goal, with record renewable additions in 2024-25 and a booming domestic solar manufacturing industry that has reached 118 GW of module capacity annually.
“India’s clean electricity growth is finally taking off after years of slow progress,” Manoj Kumar, CREA analyst, said. “If the current momentum continues, India could peak coal power before 2030. The key will be to strengthen grid flexibility, expand storage, and upgrade transmission to ensure reliable and affordable clean power.”
In Indonesia, President Prabowo Subianto’s plan to install 100 GW of solar power could enable a similar emissions peak by 2030. However, the country’s near-term power plan still prioritises new coal and gas projects. CREA warned that the gap between political ambition and implementation could delay the transition.
“The real opportunity lies in turning Indonesia’s vision into a concrete delivery roadmap that puts clean energy at the centre of new capacity additions,” Katherine Hasan, CREA analyst, said in a statement. “Without that, the fossil expansion now planned will undermine progress.”
While the clean energy surge positions all three nations to peak coal power use, CREA cautioned that the post-2030 trajectory remains uncertain. Without clear plans to phase down coal after peaking, emissions could plateau rather than fall sharply. The difference, the report notes, could equal the emissions from 500 large coal-fired power plants by 2035, roughly equivalent to India’s total CO₂ output in 2019.
“Unchecked coal expansion risks creating powerful vested interests that delay the energy transition,” Myllyvirta cautioned. “A rapid post-peak reduction will require maintaining current renewable growth rates, coupled with market and grid reforms.”
Despite the challenges, CREA highlighted unprecedented political and economic momentum behind clean energy in all three nations. Solar and battery costs have fallen by 60 per cent and 50 per cent respectively since 2022, making renewables cheaper than coal and gas in many regions. Domestic manufacturing incentives and energy security goals are further accelerating this shift.
If successful, China, India, and Indonesia would join other BRICS nations like Brazil, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates in having peaked power-sector emissions, placing the bloc in an unexpected position of potential climate leadership.
As the world looks ahead to the 30th Conference of Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Belém, Brazil, CREA’s findings could reshape global climate negotiations.