Fossil fuel importers have paid over $330 billion extra in six months since the Hormuz crisis began in February 2026,
This makes it the largest sustained price shock since the 1990 Gulf War, CREA reports.
Crude, diesel, gasoline, LNG and jet fuel prices surged well above pre-war expectations.
Diesel-driven inflation hit 134 of 170 countries and poorer economies bearing a heavier GDP burden.
Countries importing fossil fuels have incurred more than $330 billion in additional costs in the six months since the Hormuz crisis began on February 28, 2026, as disruptions to global shipping pushed oil and gas prices sharply higher, according to new research.
Importers have paid an additional $55 billion a month on average, making the price shock the largest sustained one since the 1990 Gulf War, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) said in its latest report.
The estimate is based on the increase in seaborne oil and gas prices compared with market expectations before the United States (US) and Israeli attacks on Iran. It excludes higher global freight charges and other costs, meaning the overall increase in fossil fuel import bills will be higher.
Crude oil accounted for $164 billion of the additional cost, with prices averaging 35 per cent above what markets had priced in before the strikes. Refined fuels recorded even sharper increases. Diesel and gasoil prices rose 59 per cent, adding $74 billion to import bills, while gasoline prices increased 43 per cent, adding $36 billion. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices rose 60 per cent in the Atlantic basin and 75 per cent in the Pacific, adding $38 billion. Jet fuel prices increased 59 per cent, adding $20 billion.
The increase in diesel prices has had a broad impact because industry, freight and agriculture depend heavily on the fuel. Of the 170 countries covered by the analysis, 134 paid more for diesel than implied by pre-war futures prices. The diesel war premium remained above 55 per cent in five of the six months, falling to 43 per cent in June before rising to 65 per cent in August.
In the United States, the average diesel price reached $5.57 a gallon in the week of August 17, its highest level since 2022, according to the American Automobile Association.
“The best way to protect against high oil prices is to get off the black stuff as quickly as possible,” said Luke Wickenden, energy analyst at CREA, in a statement. “Oil and gas prices have long proven to be an Achilles’ heel for both household finances and the global economy as a whole. Meanwhile, countries that invested in clean energy after past energy crises have saved billions of dollars.”
Clean power capacity added since 2020 saved importing countries an estimated $36 billion in coal, gas and oil imports during the first five months of the crisis, CREA said. Of this, $10.6 billion in savings resulted specifically from avoiding fossil fuel purchases at inflated wartime prices.
Electrification in sectors such as transport and heating is also reducing fossil fuel demand. The global electric vehicle fleet is expected to displace the use of 5 million barrels of oil a day by 2030, roughly equivalent to the amount of crude Saudi Arabia currently moves through the East West Yanbu pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, according to the International Energy Agency’s Global EV Outlook 2025.
“The energy transition is an investment,” Wickenden said. “So the best day to have started is yesterday.”
The burden has been particularly severe for poorer economies. Low and lower middle income countries paid an additional 1 per cent of their 2024 gross domestic product, or GDP, on higher fossil fuel costs, more than twice the 0.45 per cent burden faced by high-income countries.
“Across every fossil fuel product, this crisis is a multi-car pile-up, and where you land depends on what you're driving,” Wickenden said. Wealthier countries could absorb higher prices more easily, while lower-income countries were more exposed to the increase, he added.
India was the second largest payer among the 170 countries analysed, incurring an additional $22.5 billion in fossil fuel import costs between March and August 2026. China recorded the highest additional cost at $35.5 billion, followed by the United States at $16.5 billion.
CREA compared actual prices paid for seaborne crude oil, fuels and gas between March and August 2026 with the market’s pre-war expectations based on futures contracts in the 12 days before the strikes. Actual ship-tracked cargo arrivals from March to July, sourced from Kpler, accounted for $281.7 billion of the total. August, which accounts for about 15 per cent of the total, was modelled because shipping data had not yet fully settled.
The analysis covers 170 countries and excludes pipeline gas, coal, fuel oil, naphtha, freight and war-risk insurance. CREA said the estimate is conservative because it reflects the volumes importers actually purchased and therefore does not count demand lost because of higher prices or the cost of going without fuel.