Offshore wind capacity projected to triple globally by 2030, says Ember–GOWA report
Despite cost pressures and project cancellations, governments are sticking to ambitious targets
Europe, China and India driving the next wave of offshore wind expansion
China alone could account for more than half of global capacity by 2030
US faces hurdles, but state-level initiatives sustain momentum
COP30 seen as key moment for translating targets into implementation
Offshore wind capacity is set to triple worldwide by 2030 despite policy reversals and cost pressures in key markets such as the United States, according to a new report by energy think tank Ember and the Global Offshore Wind Alliance (GOWA).
The analysis was released ahead of 30th Conference of Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Brazil. It found that clear and credible government targets continue to anchor global momentum, with 27 countries, 27 subnational authorities and three regions now setting offshore wind goals.
Together, these national targets amount to 263 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, excluding China, which is yet to announce a national target but is expected to drive more than half of the world’s offshore capacity this decade.
Despite inflation, supply chain bottlenecks and project cancellations in the US, the report concluded that the world remains on course to meet the offshore wind component of the global goal to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, as agreed under the UAE Consensus at COP28.
“Offshore wind already delivers 83 GW of clean energy, enough to power 73 million homes,” said Dave Jones, chief analyst at Ember, in a press release. “To countries thinking about agreeing new targets or extending existing ones, the message is clear: now is the time to act to help spur the next wave of growth.”
The report underscored how targets act as economic instruments that provide market visibility and investor confidence. Europe continues to lead, with 15 countries collectively targeting 99 GW by 2030, half of it from Germany (30 GW) and the Netherlands (21 GW). The UK remains the single largest market, with ambitions of 43-50 GW including 5 GW of floating wind.
Across Asia, the outlook is also strengthening. India plans to auction up to 37 GW of offshore capacity by 2030, while Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam together aim for a combined 41 GW.
In China, the world’s offshore wind powerhouse, 11 coastal provinces already have 2025 targets totalling 64 GW, and new guidance under the Beijing Declaration 2.0, signed earlier this month, mandates at least 15 GW of annual offshore installations between 2026 and 2030. That is nearly double the annual average achieved during the current Five-Year Plan period.
The report noted that while many countries may fall short of their 2030 deadlines, most are maintaining or expanding their ambitions. “These are ambitious targets by design,” it said, “and even where timelines slip, they have succeeded in driving market creation and investment pipelines.”
The US, however, remains an outlier. The Biden administration’s 30 GW by 2030 target is unlikely to be met amid recent federal stop orders and cost pressures that forced several developers to pause projects. Though those orders were later reversed, the report estimates only 5.8 GW of offshore wind will be built in the US between 2025 and 2029. Yet state-level action continues, with 11 states holding a combined 84 GW of targets, led by New York (9 GW), New Jersey (11 GW) and California (25 GW by 2045).
“Despite short-term turbulence, the fundamentals of offshore wind have not changed,” said Amisha Patel, head of secretariat at GOWA, in a press statement. “Momentum continues as nations advance this proven technology, essential to the clean energy transition. We now need COP30 to become a COP of implementation, where governments move from ambition to delivery.”
Globally, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) projects that offshore wind will grow from 83 GW in 2024 to 238 GW by 2030 — nearly a threefold rise. When China’s expected capacity is included, total global offshore wind could approach 395 GW, nearly matching the International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) 413 GW requirement to stay on track for the 1.5°C climate pathway.
But the report warned that this progress depends on urgent action to unblock grid, port, and permitting constraints and to expand manufacturing capacity. “Targets alone are not enough,” it concluded. “Translating ambition into steel in the water will require coordinated policy, financing, and supply-chain reform.”
As Brazil prepares to host COP30 and advances its own offshore wind framework, the report urged the new presidency to put offshore wind at the heart of the global clean energy agenda.
“Offshore wind is a cornerstone of global climate action,” Patel said. “With the right policies and partnerships, it can deliver not just decarbonisation, but long-term energy security and industrial resilience.”