India’s energy security risks are shifting beyond oil and gas to critical minerals, manufacturing capacity, electricity storage and grid infrastructure, according to a CII-EY India report.
The report says India remains fully import-dependent for several critical minerals, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, silicon, rare earth elements, gallium, germanium and platinum group elements.
India is projected to need more than 66 million tonnes of copper, 46 million tonnes of graphite, 19.5 million tonnes of silicon and 11.5 million tonnes of nickel between 2025 and 2070.
The report says renewable energy targets alone will not ensure energy security unless India also builds secure supply chains, domestic clean energy manufacturing and stronger transmission networks.
India’s dependence on imported fossil fuels may gradually decline as renewable energy expands, but the country’s energy transition is creating a new set of vulnerabilities centred on critical minerals, electricity infrastructure and manufacturing, according to a new report.
The report, India’s Energy Security in a Volatile World: Independence, Efficiency and Resilience, by the Confederation of Indian Industry and EY India, argues that energy security can no longer be viewed only in terms of oil and gas imports. As India electrifies transport, industry and households, reliable supplies of critical minerals, domestic manufacturing capacity and modern electricity networks will become equally important, it says.
Energy security is “is increasingly about securing technologies, supply chains and the materials needed for the clean energy transition,” the report points out.
India’s growing energy demand will make this transition particularly challenging. The report says the country, already the world’s third-largest energy consumer and third-largest crude oil importer, will continue to see rising energy consumption over the next two decades, driven by industrialisation, urbanisation, infrastructure expansion and higher incomes. Unlike developed economies, where energy demand has plateaued, India must expand energy access while improving energy efficiency, the report says.
Although renewable energy capacity is rising rapidly, fossil fuels continue to dominate India’s energy mix.
Crude oil imports currently meet around 90 per cent of domestic demand, while natural gas import dependence has increased to around 50 per cent. Coal import dependence has fallen to about 18 per cent because of higher domestic production, reducing overall primary energy import dependence from 47 per cent in FY17 to around 42 per cent in FY25.
Oil products account for nearly 39 per cent of final energy consumption, while electricity contributes around 23 per cent.
The report, however, says future risks are shifting from hydrocarbons to the minerals needed for batteries, solar panels, electric vehicles and other clean energy technologies.
Between 2025 and 2070, India is projected to require more than 66 million tonnes of copper, 46 million tonnes of graphite, 19.5 million tonnes of silicon and 11.5 million tonnes of nickel.
The country remains entirely dependent on imports for several critical minerals, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, silicon, rare earth elements, gallium, germanium and platinum group elements.
This dependence, the report warns, could expose India to supply disruptions and geopolitical risks similar to those seen in global fossil fuel markets.
It recommends accelerating domestic exploration, mineral processing, recycling and indigenous manufacturing, while diversifying import sources and strengthening strategic international partnerships.
Electricity is expected to become the backbone of India’s energy system.
Per capita electricity consumption increased from 780 kilowatt hours in 2015-16 to 1,153 kilowatt hours in 2024-25, nearly 48 per cent higher than a decade ago.
Yet consumption remains significantly lower than in China, the European Union and North America, indicating that demand is likely to rise substantially as economic growth continues, the report says.
Meeting that demand will require investments beyond renewable energy generation.
The report estimates that India will need around $1.15 trillion in energy storage between 2025 and 2050, and another $3.3 trillion between 2051 and 2070, under a net-zero pathway.
Transmission and distribution infrastructure alone is expected to require investment of more than $2 trillion over the long term.
The report also projects nuclear capacity to increase from around 8.78 gigawatts today to about 22.38GW by the early 2030s and nearly 100GW by 2047, to complement variable renewable energy and improve grid reliability.
Launching the report, Union Minister for New and Renewable Energy Pralhad Joshi said the PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana had expanded to 5 million households, with rooftop solar installations rising from around 5,000 a day in October 2025 to more than 16,000 a day in July 2026.
He said India was also nearing 300GW of installed non-fossil fuel power capacity and remained on track to achieve 500GW by 2030.
The report, however, argues that renewable energy targets alone will not ensure energy security.
India’s future resilience will depend on secure supply chains, expanded electricity storage, stronger transmission networks, improved energy efficiency and reduced dependence on imported critical minerals, it says.
Manufacturing and oil security
Union Minister for Steel and Heavy Industries H.D. Kumaraswamy said energy security was increasingly being shaped by manufacturing capability, innovation and resilient domestic supply chains.
The report echoes this assessment, arguing that clean energy manufacturing will be central to reducing import dependence and improving long-term energy resilience.
It also underlines the continuing importance of oil security during the transition.
India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve currently has a capacity of 5.33 million metric tonnes, with another 6.5 million metric tonnes approved.
Petroleum consumption has nearly doubled from about 123 million metric tonnes in FY07 to 243 million metric tonnes in FY26, with transport accounting for around 57 per cent of total demand.
The report concludes that India's energy transition will require a broader definition of energy security, one that extends beyond fuel availability to include resilient infrastructure, secure mineral supplies, domestic manufacturing, technological innovation and regional cooperation.