India’s electricity demand in January-February 2026 rose noticeably year-on-year while continuing a steady climb over the past five years, as shifting winter weather patterns shaped consumption trends. The drivers point to a complex interplay of extreme weather rather than a simple “warmer winter” effect.
Data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) shows energy demand in January reached 143 billion units (BU), up from 136 BU a year earlier, while peak demand rose to 245.4 gigawatt (GW) from 237.3 GW. Over a five-year period, January demand has increased nearly 28 per cent from 112 BU recorded in 2022, with peak load rising from 193 GW to 245.4 GW, underscoring a sustained expansion in electricity use.
According to a Down To Earth (DTE) analysis based on CEA data, January 2026 marks the highest electricity requirement for the month in the past five years. It was 5.1 per cent higher than January 2025, 12.6 per cent above January 2023, and 27.7 per cent higher than January 2022. Peak demand in January 2026 also reached a five-year high of 245.4 GW, rising 3.4 per cent year-on-year, 15.5 per cent above January 2023, and 27.2 per cent higher than the 193 GW recorded in January 2022.
A similar pattern was seen in February 2026, when electricity requirement reached 133 BU, the highest February consumption in five years. This was 4.7 per cent higher than February 2025, 13.7 per cent higher than February 2023, and 23.1 per cent above February 2022 levels. Peak demand rose sharply to 244 GW, up 9.6 per cent from February 2025, 16.3 per cent above February 2023, and 25.9 per cent higher than February 2022.
Taken together, the data indicates a strong structural rise in electricity demand, with January consumption nearly 28 per cent higher than in 2022 and February demand over 23 per cent higher, while peak loads for both months have increased by roughly 26-27 per cent over the same period.
However, the demand surge coincided with unusual winter weather patterns, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
India’s winter of January and February 2026 passed with an unusual absence of cold. India did not record a single cold day or cold wave in February 2026, marking a clear break from recent years. The weather department classifies a “cold day” as one when the maximum temperature is 4.5°C to 6.4°C below average, while a “severe cold day” occurs when the deviation exceeds 6.4°C. Similarly, a “cold wave” is declared when the minimum temperature falls 4.5°C to 6.4°C below normal, and a “severe cold wave” when the drop exceeds 6.4°C.
According to another analysis by DTE, February saw six cold wave days in 2022, one in 2023, seven in 2024, and five in 2025. With the last such event recorded on January 27, February 2026 became the first February in five years without a cold wave.
The winter of 2026 ended with 24 cold day or cold wave events across 15 states and Union Territories, the second-lowest seasonal total in five years, after 2023 which recorded 21 days. The figure remains well below the 38 days recorded in 2024, and lower than the 30 in 2022 and 26 in 2025.
Winter severity has also been shifting geographically. Between 2022 and 2026, cold waves largely remained concentrated in northern, north-western and central India, although their spatial spread varied each year.
In 2022, cold waves were recorded on 30 of 59 winter days across 14 states, with no impact in southern or southeastern India. The footprint widened in 2023 to 17 states, the highest in five years, even though the number of cold-wave days fell to 21. In 2024, cold days or cold wave days increased to 38 of 60 winter days, but were confined to 13 states, again excluding southern and southeastern regions. The spread narrowed further in 2025 to just nine states and UTs. In 2026, the geographical reach expanded again to 15 states, the second-highest after 2023, indicating intermittent but limited southern penetration within an otherwise north-centric cold wave pattern.
Despite the overall mild winter, January demand was boosted by short but intense cold spells in northern India. According to IMD data, January 2026 recorded 24 cold day or cold wave events, compared with 21 in 2025, 31 in 2024, 20 in 2023, and 22 in 2022.
According to a February 2026 analysis by CRISIL Intelligence, an India-focused market intelligence firm and a subsidiary of S&P Global, year-on-year power consumption increase in January makes it the highest-ever January demand. Peak load crossed 245 GW, rivalling summer highs typically driven by air conditioning.
According to Sharath Rao, visiting fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress, a New Delhi-based public policy think tank, this reflects an emerging shift. “Winters have started demanding more electricity,” he told DTE, pointing to record loads in Delhi during December 2025 and early 2026.
Rao attributed this to heating appliances such as oil heaters and geysers, which rely on inefficient resistive heating and draw continuous power, amplifying demand during cold spells. Resistance heating (or Joule heating) is a process where electrical energy is converted into heat by passing current through a conductive material with high resistance.
The trend shifted again in February, when demand remained high due to unseasonal warmth. CEA provisional data shows power consumption rising about 2 per cent year-on-year to nearly 133 BU. According to CRISIL’s March 2026 report, it was the “highest February consumption” in more than a decade.
Weather conditions during the month reflected this shift. During February 19-25, maximum temperatures were 4-6°C above normal in parts of northwest India, while minimum temperatures were 2-4°C above normal across most regions. The warmth triggered early use of cooling appliances, keeping peak demand near 244 GW, above typical seasonal patterns. The figure even surpassed the summer peak of 243 GW recorded in June and was only 0.5 per cent lower than the January peak of 245 GW.
Beyond weather, structural factors continue to support demand growth. CRISIL Intelligence notes that strong industrial activity, which accounts for nearly half of electricity consumption, along with rising household electrification and appliance use, is steadily lifting baseline demand. Improved supply conditions ensured that the higher consumption was largely met with minimal power deficits.
Even so, Rao cautioned against drawing firm conclusions from a single season, noting that five to 10 years of data are needed to establish a clear trend. While anecdotal evidence points to temperature variations possibly linked to El Niño, there is no conclusive evidence yet of a sustained shift in winter patterns.
According to CRISIL Intelligence and expert assessments, what is becoming clearer is rising variability in seasonal demand. The January-February pattern suggests India’s power system may increasingly face multiple demand peaks across the year, driven by both cold spells and early heat surges.
For power planners, this signals the need to prepare for sustained high loads beyond the traditional summer peak.
In effect, while electricity demand did rise during the period, attributing it solely to a warmer winter would be misleading. Instead, extreme and shifting weather conditions (cold spells followed by unseasonal heat) appear to be jointly driving higher power consumption.