What could be more horrifying than a power cut — especially during the peak of summer, and while you're asleep?
In 2025, during the summer months, this will become a reality across India: the reality of load shedding. Brace yourself for sweltering heat by day and possible power cuts by night.
According to the Short-Term National Resource Adequacy Plan (ST-NRAP), prepared by the National Load Dispatch Centre (NLDC), India’s electricity demand is projected to peak at a massive 273 gigawatts (GW) in June 2025 — up from 250 GW in 2024. In effect, this translates to an unmet electricity demand of around 15–20 GW.
The primary reason behind this gap is the increasing demand for cooling as temperatures soar during India’s hot and humid summers. But meeting this peak demand is not straightforward.
The study highlights that energy shortages are most likely between April and October, with May and June specifically flagged as ‘high-risk’ months.
A key challenge is the variability of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. While they play a crucial role in power supply, their intermittent nature can cause shortfalls — especially during peak non-solar hours.
So, what exactly are solar and non-solar hours?
The term ‘solar hours’ refers to specific time blocks determined weekly by the NLDC based on expected solar radiation, while ‘non-solar hours’ include all other time blocks in the same day.
The Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) — which indicates how often the electricity system may be unable to meet demand — could reach a concerning 31% in May under a median scenario. That means there’s nearly a one-in-three chance of shortfall.
So, what can be done?
The Resource Adequacy report underscores the need to integrate flexible generation resources to strengthen system adequacy and prevent supply disruptions.
To keep power stations running efficiently, the study recommends scheduling maintenance during periods of lower electricity demand. It also advises maintaining backup power — known as spinning reserves — and improving demand forecasting techniques.
Even though India has expanded its renewable energy capacity to 200 GW, it still lacks sufficient energy storage — currently under 5 GW (as of end-2024). Because of this, the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has urgently called for the adoption of storage systems like Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and Pumped Storage Plants (PSP). These systems can store excess solar energy generated during the day and release it when demand rises in non-solar hours.
The report also recommends invoking Section 11 of the Electricity Act, 2003, to direct power plants to use imported coal for operating thermal stations during peak demand.
Meeting India’s growing electricity needs in 2025 will require meticulous planning, infrastructure investment, and a strong push towards energy storage. It’s a complex challenge — but a crucial one for the nation’s future.