Global agencies warn West Asia war impact is “highly asymmetric”
Energy-importing and low-income countries hit hardest by rising costs
Oil, gas and fertiliser prices surge amid supply disruptions
Strait of Hormuz risks and infrastructure damage deepen global uncertainty
The ongoing war in West Asia is sending shockwaves across the global economy, with rising oil, gas and fertiliser prices hitting poorer and energy-importing countries the hardest, according to a joint warning by the heads of the International Energy Agency (IEA), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group.
The impact is “substantial, global, and highly asymmetric,” the organisations said in a joint statement on April 14, 2026, warning that the shock has already driven up oil, gas and fertiliser prices, raising concerns over food security, job losses and export revenue declines in parts of the West Asia.
The statement followed a meeting of a coordination group of the IEA, IMF and World Bank on April 14, set up earlier this month to coordinate their response to the widening energy and economic fallout of the West Asia war.
Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, through which roughly 20 per cent of global oil consumption passes each day, remain a key risk to global energy supply.
“The situation remains very uncertain, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is yet to normalize. Even after a resumption of regular shipping flows through the Strait, it will take time for global supplies of key commodities to move back towards their pre-conflict levels and fuel and fertilizer prices may remain high for a prolonged period given the damage to infrastructure,” the statement read.
The knock-on effects of supply disruptions are spreading beyond energy markets. “Due to supply disruptions, shortages of key inputs are likely to have implications for energy, food, and other industries. The war has also forcibly displaced people, impacted jobs, and reduced travel and tourism, which may take time to reverse,” the institutions added.
The meeting comes ahead of the release of two major global reports (the IEA’s Oil Market Report and the IMF’s World Economic Outlook). Both are expected to reflect the evolving impact of the conflict on energy markets and economic growth.
“Today, we shared our latest assessments, ahead of the release this Tuesday, April 14, of the IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report and IMF’s World Economic Outlook. We also discussed the situations of the countries most affected by the shock as well as the responses by our institutions,” the statement noted.
The three organisations said their teams are working jointly to support affected countries. “Our teams are working closely, including at country level, to leverage our respective expertise and help countries through tailored policy advice and, in the case of the IMF and World Bank, financial support where needed.”
They added that coordination efforts will continue as the situation evolves. “We will continue to monitor closely and assess the impact of the war on energy markets, the global economy and individual countries, and to coordinate our response and support to our member countries—working with, and drawing on, other international organizations’ expertise as needed to lay the foundations for a resilient recovery that delivers stability, growth and jobs.”
The latest warning builds on weeks of volatility in global energy markets since the conflict escalated earlier this year. Disruptions to supply chains, damage to infrastructure and heightened risks to key shipping routes have pushed up oil and gas prices, with fertiliser costs rising in tandem due to their dependence on natural gas.
For energy-importing countries, the result has been rising import bills and inflationary pressures, compounding existing fiscal challenges. At the same time, some producers in the Middle East have faced export losses due to disrupted trade flows.
The joint statement signals growing concern among global institutions that the war’s economic fallout could persist, with disproportionate impacts on vulnerable economies and a prolonged recovery timeline.
The ongoing war between the United States States and Israel vs Iran, which broke out on February 28, 2026 following attacks on key energy infrastructure and heightened regional military tensions, has significantly disrupted global energy markets. Since the onset of the conflict, benchmark crude oil prices have risen by roughly 10–15 per cent, while natural gas and fertiliser prices have also climbed sharply due to supply uncertainties and logistical disruptions. Shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz have further intensified volatility. The combined impact of infrastructure damage, constrained exports and disrupted supply chains has driven up import costs for energy-dependent economies, fuelling inflationary pressures and amplifying concerns over food security and economic stability worldwide.