The world's six largest fossil fuel corporations are expected to nearly double their combined net income in the second quarter of 2026, even as their emissions continue to intensify deadly heatwaves, according to a new analysis by international aid organisation Oxfam.
The analysis projects that BP, Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies will collectively earn $45 billion in net income during April-June 2026, up from $23 billion in the previous quarter.
Much of the impact of these heatwaves are felt by countries that have contributed very little to climate change and have the least resources to cope with the impacts. They need external financial support to adapt and taxing the richest fossil fuel companies on their profits can plug this funding gap, Oxfam suggests in the report.
If projections hold, the companies are expected to post combined annual profits of $147 billion in 2026. This will be more than their combined earnings over the previous 21 months, from the second quarter of 2024 to the end of 2025. Chevron is expected to report profits equivalent to $1,200 every second during the quarter, while ExxonMobil's earnings are projected to triple to touch $1,800 per second.
Drawing on data published in Nature, Oxfam said emissions from BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies were sufficient to cause around one in four heatwaves recorded globally between 2000 and 2023. These extreme weather events would have been virtually impossible without human-made climate change. Using S&P Capital Trucost data, the organisation also estimated that Big Oil was responsible for $60 billion in environmental damage last year.
This summer, South Asia, Europe and North America saw record-breaking heatwaves, while West African countries continue to struggle with devastating monsoons and floods.
Despite mounting climate risks, the six corporations plan to increase oil and gas production by 14 per cent by 2030 compared to 2024 levels, equivalent to pumping an additional 2.5 million barrels of oil a day.
"Fossil fuel corporations are making a killing, literally and figuratively. As extreme heat, floods and storms devastate communities across the world, the industry is preparing another bonanza of profits. Families are paying the price three times over: through destroyed homes and harvests, through soaring energy prices, and through a cost-of-living crisis worsened by dependence on fossil fuels. Big Oil's greed is incompatible with a livable planet and unless governments rein it in, they will make a mockery of international climate targets," said Mariana Paoli, Oxfam's Climate Policy Lead.
According to the UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2025, the estimated adaptation finance needs of low- and middle-income countries range from $310 billion to $365 billion per year by 2035.
Oxfam estimated that a tax on the profits of 585 of the world's largest fossil fuel corporations could raise up to $400 billion globally in its first year, enough to cover annual climate adaptation costs in low- and middle-income countries. An additional excess profits tax on all corporations could generate up to $681 billion globally.
"While Big Oil fuels extreme weather events, rich countries are refusing to increase the public climate finance that poorer countries urgently need to cope with the climate crisis. Until governments make the richest polluters pay, fossil fuel corporations will keep driving us deeper into climate chaos. Taxing the richest polluters could help close the gap in funding for climate adaptation and speed the transition towards renewable energy. Fossil fuel corporations must feel the heat, not us," Paoli added.