WMO warns that a new El Niño is likely to develop between May and July 2026.
Some models suggest it could be strong.
The event is expected to drive above-normal land temperatures almost worldwide and influence rainfall patterns.
“An El Niño event is expected to develop from mid-2026, impacting global temperature and rainfall patterns,” according to the latest press release from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on April 24, 2026.
The last El Nino occured from June 2023 to April 2024. The return of the warming event could happen as early as May-July 2026, said WMO. Its likely impacts around the world include a “nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” over the following three-month period, the meteorological organisation added.
El Niño is the warmer than normal phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon that takes place in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.
'El Niño' in Spanish translates to 'Christ child' or 'the boy' and refers to the timing of historically early observations of the event by Peruvian fisherfolk in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean in the 17th century. The sea along the Peruvian coast would become much hotter than normal around Christmas time every few years. The warmer surface waters reduced fish coming to the surface leading to bad harvests in the season for the fisherfolk.
It was later found that the warm waters during this phase extended to much of the eastern and central Equatorial Pacific Ocean and influenced the atmosphere over the sea surface. This led to its modern definition.
There is also a colder phase of the phenomenon known as the La Niña or 'the girl' with mostly contrasting impacts to the El Nino. The periodicity of these events was found to be between two and seven years.
Many climate scientists have characterised the upcoming El Niño event as a super El Niño but “WMO does not use the term “super El Niño” because it is not part of standardised operational classifications”, according to the press release. Even then the United Nations’ weather and climate organisation indicated that the El Niño event could be strong but also cautioned about the forecast.
“Models indicate that this may be a strong event – but the so-called spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Forecast confidence generally improves after April,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, chief of climate prediction at WMO.
WMO also highlighted El Niño’s “warming effect on global climate” and the 2023-2024 El Niño’s impact on the global annual average temperature in 2024 making it the warmest year on record. El Niño is "typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia, and drought over Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia”, according to WMO.
During the Boreal summer, El Niño’s warm water can fuel hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean, while it hinders hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin, as per WMO.
“For the May-June-July season, land surface temperatures are expected to be above-normal nearly everywhere. The signal is especially strong over southern North America, Central America, and the Caribbean, as well as Europe and Northern Africa”, according to WMO.