Hotter conditions, prolonged droughts and invasive vegetation are making wildfires more intense and difficult to control.
Extreme wildfires could increase by up to 30% globally by 2050, according to a UN assessment.
South Africa faces growing risks from water scarcity, expanding settlements and combustible vegetation.
Experts stress that early warnings, satellite monitoring and community participation are essential to reducing wildfire damage.
Hotter conditions, prolonged droughts and the build-up of combustible vegetation are making wildfires more difficult to manage, increasing the risk of destructive fires that threaten communities, livelihoods and ecosystems.
Christiaan (Tiaan) Pool, head of forestry at Nelson Mandela University (NMU) in South Africa, said low humidity, strong winds and dry landscapes could combine to produce rapidly spreading fires that overwhelm firefighting efforts.
Speaking in the context of the International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction, observed on October 13, Pool warned that climate change and changing land use were increasing the threat of extreme wildfires. When low humidity and strong winds combine with a dry landscape, fires can spread rapidly, burn intensely and overwhelm efforts to contain them, he explained. The consequences extend from destroyed homes and livelihoods to damaged ecosystems and increasingly dangerous, expensive firefighting operations.
A United Nations Environment Programme assessment projected that extreme fires could increase by up to 30 per cent by 2050.
“Dangerous combinations of heat, dryness and wind are becoming more likely in many regions, putting greater pressure on prevention and preparedness,” Pool said.
South Africa faces these challenges alongside water scarcity, invasive alien vegetation and growing human activity near fire-prone landscapes.
Drought dries vegetation while reducing the water available for firefighting. Invasive woody plants add fuel, while expanding settlements and infrastructure increase the potential damage from fires.
The developing 2026 El Niño is another concern. According to Pool, the World Meteorological Organization's October update indicated a strengthening event, which could contribute to hotter and drier conditions in parts of southern Africa.
He said below-average rainfall could increase the risk of a difficult fire season, while sudden changes in wind and humidity could rapidly intensify an existing blaze.
Recent wildfires across Africa have demonstrated the scale of the threat. In 2022, fires on Tanzania's Mount Kilimanjaro required military reinforcements and helicopters. Wildfires in Algeria killed at least 34 people in July 2023, while a fire near Franschhoek in South Africa burned more than 17,000 hectares in January 2026.
However, Pool said the number of fires alone was not a reliable measure of their danger.
“We also need to understand how large they become, how intensely they burn and how difficult they are to control. A changing fire environment demands a changing management response,” he said.
Invasive alien vegetation is a particular concern. Woody species such as acacias, pines, eucalyptus and hakea can accumulate substantial biomass, increasing the amount of material available to burn.
Research into the 2017 Knysna fires in South Africa found that invasive alien vegetation contributed to greater fire severity, demonstrating how landscape conditions could worsen a disaster.
Changing land use adds further complexity. Forestry plantations, dry agricultural crops and settlements bordering combustible vegetation create different fire risks that require coordination across property boundaries and sectors.
For vulnerable households, small businesses and public institutions, the losses can exceed their capacity to recover. Damage to grazing land, crops, timber and infrastructure can also affect employment and local economies.
Pool said human activity was a major cause of unwanted fires, including arson, escaped controlled burns and unattended cooking or warming fires. Lightning can also ignite fires, particularly during thunderstorms at the beginning of the rainy season.
Whether an ignition develops into a disaster depends on vegetation, weather, terrain and preparedness.
However, Pool cautioned that fire was not always harmful. Grasslands, fynbos and savannas depend on periodic burning to maintain ecological processes.
The challenge, he said, was to allow appropriate fires while preventing uncontrolled blazes that threatened lives and livelihoods. Limited resources, uneven implementation of fire management measures and poor understanding of responsibilities could weaken preparedness.
Pool stressed that improved forecasting and satellite monitoring could help identify dangerous conditions, but warnings were only effective when followed by timely action. “A seasonal warning only becomes useful when somebody understands its implications and acts,” he said.
“Managers need to understand what the forecast means for their land, their communities and their resources, then prepare before conditions become dangerous.”
Fire management means changing the conditions that affect fires, as well as human behaviour. Research helps explain how these factors interact and guides managers in adapting their practices, he added.
Pool cited his recent work in Tanzania's Southern Highlands, where satellite data helped identify areas at high risk of wildfires.
Researchers then worked with villagers to understand the causes of unwanted fires and develop practical responses.
The project contributed to regional fire-management bylaws, training programmes and village-specific fire management plans.
Manuals were translated into Swahili, while residents were trained to manufacture affordable firefighting hand tools.