A new CSE-CITIES Forum study says India must expand its urban bus fleet 10-fold and invest Rs 14.2 lakh crore to meet the needs of its growing cities.
More than 400 Indian cities have no organised urban bus transport, while ageing fleets and weak finances threaten the future of public mobility, the study says.
India will need 6.71 lakh urban buses by 2047, with a 90% electric fleet, to address its transit deficit and reduce pollution, according to the study.
The report calls for a National Urban Bus Mission, green bus bonds and fleet electrification to overhaul India’s struggling urban transport systems.
India’s urban bus systems face a 70% deficit, with thousands of overaged buses and a looming fleet retirement crisis, the study says.
More than 400 Indian cities have no organised urban bus transport system, while the country faces a 70 per cent deficit in urban transit, according to a new study jointly conducted by Delhi-based think tank Centre for Science and Environment and global technical firm CITIES Forum.
India will need to expand its urban bus fleet 10-fold, from about 65,000 buses at present to 671,000 buses by 2047, said the study, released August 10, 2026.
It estimated that an overhaul of the sector, including depot, grid and charging infrastructure, will require a cumulative investment of Rs 14.2 lakh crore over the next two decades.
India’s urban population is projected to rise from 490 million in 2026 to 763 million by 2047, adding about 270 million city dwellers. But current bus availability stands at only 13.3 to 13.8 buses per 100,000 urban population, far below the government benchmark of 44 buses per 100,000, the study said.
Out of 1.45 million registered buses in India and 290,000 State Transport Undertaking stage-carriage buses, only about 65,000 operate as organised urban city buses, it added.
The report said five states — Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka — account for 55 per cent of the active national urban bus fleet, underlining severe geographical disparities.
Ageing fleets are adding to the crisis. Around 40,000 urban buses in service have crossed their 15-year statutory life, while 580,000 buses across all categories are expected to reach end-of-life between 2026 and 2030, the study said.
It called for a 17-fold increase in annual urban bus procurement, from about 2,500 buses at present to an average of 41,500 buses a year. The recommended target scenario would take India to 88 buses per lakh population by 2047, with 90 per cent of the fleet electric.
Anumita Roychowdhury, executive director of research and advocacy at CSE, said transforming bus transit was critical for clean air, energy security and climate action under Viksit Bharat 2047. “Buses are the prime movers of this transition, capable of taking 40 to 50 private cars off the roads per bus to secure a 70-75 per cent public transport share,” she stated in a press release.
Powering a zero-emission urban bus fleet would require 121 gigawatts-hour of battery capacity and about 37,000 million units of electricity annually, equivalent to 1.8 per cent of India’s total power generation in 2024, the study found. It recommended launching a National Urban Bus Mission, backed by a National Urban Bus Electrification Fund, green bus bonds, concessional debt, credit guarantees and results-based financing.
It also called for restructuring financially distressed transport undertakings, replacing overaged buses, rationalising taxes and mandating that all new urban bus purchases be electric by 2039-40.