In the past year, the world has counted more missiles and bombs than hours. More bricks have been added to dust than to history. About 35 countries are in conflict. In a reversal of trend, wars and conflicts now displace and kill more people than natural disasters. “World War” is now a key Google search term; major conflicts are at their highest level since the end of World War II. The state of “polycrisis” has been replaced by “geopolitical crisis”. Heads of warring countries headline their state-of-the-nation speeches with the number of targeted attacks elsewhere.
These are no ordinary times. The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), a Sydney-based think tank “dedicated to shifting the world’s focus to peace as a positive, achievable, and tangible measure of human well-being and progress” calls this period “The Great Fragmentation”. In its latest assessment of global geopolitics, the IEP says, “The increase in global violence coincided with the start of the global financial crisis in 2008 and is the third major geopolitical phase in the past 50 years. This phase can be characterised as ‘The Great Fragmentation’.” Global “peacefulness” has declined in 13 of last 17 years.
After the Cold War ended in 1991, the world entered a period of rapid globalisation and liberalisation. The financial crisis of 2008 ushered in a new era that does not seem to have a precedent. Surveys point to geopolitical risks today exceed those seen during the Cold War. Globalisation has given way to an era of restricted trade regimes, and multilateral institutions have been abandoned to facilitate this new order. In their place, many “minilateral” arrangements are being worked upon among countries. “This latest phase of increasing fragmentation was not caused by a sudden collapse of international institutions, but by a steady build-up of frictions over the last 15 years. These include the increasing use of tariffs, export bans, and investment restrictions, as well as new migration and capital controls,” says the IEP report.
It also states that besides the above changes, the two superpowers—the US and China—have been losing their respective political influence since 2015. At the same time, there is a rise of “middle level powers” that do not align with superpowers. This is reflected in rising geopolitical risks and conflicts. The IEP report says: “This shift has intensified competition in the Global South, where middle powers vie for influence alongside superpowers through aid, investment, and security partnerships, a trend that fuels proxy involvement and has contributed to a 175 per cent increase in internationalised intrastate conflicts (defined as ‘where an external state provides troops to one side of an intrastate conflict’) since 2010.” And there is no propensity to achieve peace. According to the IEP, “Peace agreements have fallen sharply since the 1970s when 23 per cent of conflicts finished with a peace agreement, compared to just four per cent in the 2010s.” With this, military expenditure has been rising continuously since 1991. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many European countries have been spending huge amounts on the military.
This also means a diversion of resources from development and climate emergency activities. Some economies in Europe have started trimming their education and health budgets. Progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are already faltering, especially in countries affected by conflict. Studies show that wars and conflicts cost the most to poor and developing countries, and their effects linger for decades. Development clocks are pushed back by generations. This era of fragmentation is precisely unfolding that way.