'Immigrant' has become a buzzword for many high-stake political battles — from Europe to the Americas to Asia. The influx of legal and illegal immigrants has paradoxically emerged as a major political agenda in a globalised world.
Some 70 countries are actively deliberating on controlling immigration. But the political attention is disproportionate to the share of international migrants in the global population, which is just 3.6 per cent, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). “The total estimated 281 million people living in a country other than their countries of birth in 2020 was 128 million more than in 1990 and over three times the estimated number in 1970,” said IOM.
On the other hand, the declining population in a set of countries — tentatively, those that receive the bulk of immigrants — has given rise to a slew of incentives for population growth. The UN’s World Population Prospects 2022 report forecast that populations of 61 countries or areas are projected to decrease by 1 per cent or more between 2022 and 2050.
The report attributes this trend, apart from low levels of fertility, to high rates of emigration. In 2025, Donald Trump’s second inauguration as the US President and deliberations in Europe may result in brutal action for immigration control.
The total fertility rate dipped in many countries. Two-thirds of the global population lives in a country or area where fertility is below 2.1 births per woman, the level where population can be stabilised, according to the UN.
UN noted that in high-income countries, international migration tipped the balance in favour of births over deaths in 2000-20. In the immediate future, an inflow of immigrants may be the “sole driver” of population growth. On the other hand, low- and middle-income nations like India will continue to record population growth naturally, with an excess of births over deaths.
The World Bank said that geographically, population growth and decline are so disproportionately distributed that the world needs a new wave of migration to sustain the workforce. In middle-income countries, the population is ageing before attaining a certain income level. And, in countries where the population is booming, mostly in Africa, the working group lacks skills to exploit this void. Currently, there are 184 million migrants in the world, forming a defining workforce.
The World Bank warned developed countries might increasingly depend on human migration to sustain economies and meet responsibilities towards their ageing population. This means rich countries that seal their borders would have to open up again, not as charity but as an existential necessity. Immigrant-receiving countries will develop mechanisms to determine eligible and ineligible immigrants, and to regulate illegal influx with border control.
The story has been taken from the Down To Earth print edition of January 1-15, 2025.