Ukraine’s population crisis has emerged as a key concern for its recovery, even as military alliance North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on November 19, 2024 marked the 1,000th day of Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country. The country is facing a dual battle: defending its sovereignty and safeguarding its future generations.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, in a video message, reaffirmed support for Ukraine, calling for an end to the war that has wrought devastating human and economic losses.
Since 2014, when Russia first annexed Crimea, Ukraine’s population has declined by over 10 million, according to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). The ongoing conflict has exacerbated pre-existing demographic challenges, including one of Europe’s lowest birth rates and a rapidly aging population.
Ukraine’s fertility rate has plummeted to one child per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1, making it the lowest in Europe. The war has intensified this trend, as 8.6 million Ukrainians have fled the country and daily attacks on civilian infrastructure continue to disrupt lives. Meanwhile, 6.7 million refugees remain displaced.
From 2000 to 2021, Ukraine’s live birth rate showed a consequential decline, reaching a low of 7.3 births per 1,000 population in 2021, the lowest figure in over a decade, according to data portal Statista. The highest recorded rate during this period was 11.4 live births per 1,000 inhabitants in 2012.
In 2022, Ukraine's total population was estimated by Statista at approximately 41 million. However, this figure does not reflect the emigration and displacement resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The demographic data is extremely outdated as the last census was conducted in 2001.
“While the return of peace to Ukraine is paramount, much can be done now to strengthen Ukraine's human capital and build the foundations for the country's demographic recovery,” Florence Bauer, UNFPA regional director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, said at a press briefing in Geneva last month.
The demographic decline has far-reaching economic implications. The Ukrainian Institute of the Future estimates that the country’s workforce is now down to approximately 9.5 million, reported news website Ukraine Business News. Just six to seven million people support the rest of the population — about 23 million people, including pensioners, children and public sector employees.
The ageing population poses additional challenges, with forecasts suggesting that by 2052, pensioners could outnumber working-age individuals two to one. Ukraine will struggle to generate the gross domestic product needed for reconstruction unless its population trends are addressed, the institute warned.
Since February 2022, over 11,973 civilians, including 622 children, have been killed and nearly 26,000 injured including 1,686 children, according to the UN. Beyond the immediate human cost, demographers predict Ukraine’s population could shrink by up to 31 per cent by 2052 under the most pessimistic scenarios, leaving fewer than 30 million people in the country, Down To Earth had earlier reported.
Assistant Secretary-General for United Nations Department of Political Affairs Miroslav Jenča emphasised the urgency of addressing ongoing attacks on Ukraine’s energy and residential infrastructure. As winter approaches, the continued destruction risks further displacement and suffering.
With support from the UNFPA, Ukraine has developed a national demographic strategy aimed at addressing the crisis by focusing on human capital rather than simply increasing birth rates. The strategy emphasises education, health and socioeconomic reforms to retain talent and incentivise return migration.
Notably, the strategy includes the concept of “demographic resilience,” which emphasises the importance of improving society's ability to thrive in the face of rapid demographic change.
However, recovery remains uncertain as the war grinds on. The path to stabilisation will depend on rebuilding communities, securing peace and addressing the deep scars left by conflict.