Cancer cases and deaths are expected to sharply increase between 2022 and 2045 in India, a new study by the Indian Council of Medical Research-National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research has found.
The study, which looked at cancer cases, deaths and the impact on the quality of life in the BRICS countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, also found that South Africa would also show an increase in cancer similar to India’s.
“Our analysis also shows the sharp increase in cancer cases and deaths between 2022 and 2045 in India and South Africa. Sathishkumar et al reported a 12.8% increase in the incidence of cancer cases in India in 2025 compared to 2020 and that cancer incidence is continuing to rise. The projected growth in cancer case numbers can be linked to the upsurge in life expectancy at birth, a trend observed across all BRICS countries from 2000 to 2022,” Anita Nath, Ruchita Taneja, Yamini Saraswathi Thadi, Gokul Sarveswaran and Prashant Mathur noted in the study.
Among males, leading cancer sites included prostate, lung and colorectum. India reported a high incidence of lip and oral cavity cancer among men, compared to other countries.
The researchers noted that the reason for the high incidence of oral cancer, as noted in previous studies, was the high consumption of tobacco in both smoked and smokeless forms.
“From an economic perspective, low socioeconomic status can increase the risk of oral cancer, similar to the effect of lifestyle risk factors,” the study read.
Breast cancer dominated among females in all BRICS countries, except China, where lung cancer took precedence. Cervical cancer ranked as the second leading site of cancer among females in India and South Africa.
The researchers said socioeconomic progress can explain this phenomenon. “A prior review indicated that BRICS countries accounted for 33.6% of new breast cancer cases worldwide and 36.9% of global breast cancer deaths. Additionally, these countries experienced a significant upward trend in breast cancer incidence,” said the researchers.
Lung cancer has been the leading cause of death in all countries except India, where breast cancer leads.
Trachea, bronchus and lung cancers contributed the most to disability adjusted life years (DALYs), except in India, where breast cancer prevailed.
“Although the BRICS countries anticipate sustained economic growth and have viable cancer control plans, it is essential to investigate cancer risk factors and health systems influencing cancer incidence and outcomes,” the researchers wrote.