The majority of African Union (AU) member states are not on track to achieve the continent’s target of eradicating malaria by 2030, according to the 2024 Africa Progress Report, unveiled at the 38th AU Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Despite the ambitious goals set under the AU’s Catalytic Framework, progress has stalled. Malaria incidence has only decreased by four per cent, and mortality by just 15 per cent since 2015. These figures fall significantly short of the interim targets of a 40 per cent reduction by 2020 and a 75 per cent reduction by 2025.
Of the 46 AU Member States reporting malaria cases, only six have reached a 40 per cent reduction in incidence, while just seven have met the 75 per cent reduction target for mortality.
The report, which was jointly prepared by the African Leaders Malaria Alliance (ALMA), the African Union Commission, and the Roll Back Malaria Partnership to End Malaria, identifies significant challenges including funding deficits, climate change, and biological resistance as key obstacles to progress.
The battle against malaria in Africa is hindered by various challenges, including insufficient financial resources, the development of resistance to antimalarial drugs and insecticides, humanitarian crises, and the spread of invasive mosquito species that increase the risk of urban malaria transmission.
The report highlights that funding shortages remain a major obstacle to malaria eradication. The World Health Organization (WHO) states that global funding for malaria control reached only $4 billion in 2023, far short of the $8.3 billion required. This funding gap has grown from $2.9 billion in 2019 to $4.3 billion in 2023.
The Africa Progress Report warns that an additional $1.5 billion is needed in 2025-2026 to maintain the current, though inadequate, coverage of malaria interventions. To meet the global malaria targets by 2025, around $6.3 billion in annual funding is necessary.
Climate change is further exacerbating malaria transmission, particularly in Africa’s highland areas, where the number of months suitable for malaria transmission has already increased by 14 per cent. By the 2030s, an additional 147–171 million Africans could be at risk, and climate-driven transmission is expected to result in 775,000 additional deaths by 2050. Extreme weather events, such as floods and prolonged rainy seasons, are accelerating mosquito breeding, while humanitarian crises disrupt healthcare systems and hamper malaria control efforts.
The spread of invasive mosquito species presents another challenge. Anopheles stephensi, an urban-adapted mosquito capable of transmitting malaria in densely populated areas, has now been found in eight AU Member States, including Kenya. This species poses a threat of malaria outbreaks in cities and economic centres, where transmission had previously been low.
If malaria funding remains stagnant between 2027 and 2029, Africa could face an estimated 112 million additional cases and up to 280,700 more deaths due to surges and outbreaks. The economic burden of malaria is also considerable, with the disease reducing GDP growth by up to 1.3 per cent annually in endemic regions and causing the loss of up to half a billion workdays across the continent each year.
“In malaria-endemic regions, the disease reduces GDP growth by up to 1.3 per cent annually and contributes to the loss of up to half a billion workdays each year. However, investing in malaria elimination brings substantial economic returns. The eradication of malaria could increase Africa’s GDP by $127 billion by 2030,” stated H.E. Moussa Faki, Chairperson of the African Union Commission, in the report.
The Yaoundé Declaration, adopted in 2024 by Health Ministers from High Burden to High Impact countries, signals a renewed commitment to reducing malaria mortality.
The report also praises Cabo Verde and Egypt for achieving WHO-certified malaria-free status, demonstrating that malaria eradication in Africa is attainable with sufficient political will, multisectoral advocacy, new tools, and adequate resources.
“This achievement serves as a reminder that—given the necessary political will, multisectoral collaboration, deployment of new tools, and adequate funding—malaria can be eradicated,” the report states.
To achieve the goal of eliminating malaria by 2030, the report calls for a comprehensive approach, urging the African Union Commission (AUC) and member states to adopt a strategy that includes increasing domestic funding for sustainable interventions, strengthening health systems and research to combat resistance, and integrating climate resilience into malaria control efforts.
Enhanced cross-border collaboration will be essential to reach mobile and displaced populations, while scaling up the use of innovative tools, such as new vaccines and advanced insecticides, will be crucial in the fight against malaria.