The next pandemic could strike by 2030, says the UN Environmental Programme in a report released in July 2024. The warning, however, appears to point to an imminent threat as reports emerge that the highly pathogenic avian influenza, H5N1, is just one mutation away from human-to-human spread.
The year 2024 has also been marked by outbreaks of re-emerging and zoonotic diseases such as cholera, mpox, marburg and oropouche fever. An analysis of data with the World Health Organization (WHO) shows that at least 16 viruses and bacteria have caused outbreaks across the world in 2024.
In addition, the health crisis due to antimicrobial resistance is worsening. This is a matter of grave concern for the world, where the scars of the novel coronavirus pandemic are still raw.
Although WHO has been negotiating the International Treaty on Pandemic Prevention, Preparedness and Response since 2021, when the world was in the grip of COVID-19, significant gaps in collaboration and preparedness remain.
A 2024 report by the UN Environment Programme warns that emerging zoonotic diseases could trigger a pandemic by 2030, driven by deforestation, urbanisation, habitat destruction and unsustainable agriculture. It adds that climate change accelerates spillover, with fatalities projected to be 12 times higher by 2050 than in 2020.
In Africa, a more virulent form of mpox, Clade 1b, is spreading rapidly. First detected in the Democratic Republic of Congo in September 2023, it has caused up to 50,000 cases and over 1,000 deaths. The virus spread to neighbouring countries and was detected in travellers across multiple nations. In August 2024, WHO declared a public health emergency of international concern.
In Latin America, large outbreaks of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, zika and oropouche fever are being reported in new areas. Brazil reported over 6 million suspected dengue cases in 2024, the highest ever. These diseases spread through the bite of infected mosquitoes and flies, which are thriving round-the-year with increasing precipitation and temperature. Dengue, a tropical disease, is also spreading across Europe. Aedes albopictus, thought to be the most invasive species of mosquito in the world, has set up home in 13 countries in the EU.
In North America, highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza spread from poultry to dairy cows, affecting 16 US states, infecting at least 65 people by the end of the year and raising concerns about mutations and rapid adaptation.
In September, the UN approved a political declaration aimed at reducing the 4.95 million estimated human deaths linked to bacterial antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The declaration committed to reducing AMR-related deaths by 10 per cent annually by 2030.
(This story was first published in the January 1-15, 2025 print edition of Down To Earth magazine.)