The conflict in Donbas highlights the intricate link between geology and strategy, with the region's rich mineral resources, including coal and shale gas, playing a pivotal role.
The Sea of Azov further enhances its strategic importance, making Donbas a focal point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, driven by both economic interests and geopolitical leverage.
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not just limited to the matter of territorial boundaries but may also be more about the natural resources that are hidden beneath the land.
Donbas, a hot topic in the world these days, covers the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which have remained an industrial hub for Ukraine for a long time. It has a rich history and presence of significant mineral resources like coal, coal bed methane (CBM), rock salt, shale gas and other critical minerals. At its south lies the Sea of Azov, which connects the said valuable resources with international trade and markets. Keeping hold of such ground offers economic and strategic leverage for any country.
Considering its quality and huge volume, coal has always been recognised as the backbone of Donbas. According to the International Energy Agency, Ukraine possesses around 32 gigatonnes of hard coal, most of which is concentrated in this basin. The coking coal mined in the region serves the steel and other industries; similarly, anthracite has its own precious role in metallurgy and power generation. The coal seams in the area are mostly rich in methane gas, which has been studied and found feasible to recover, though large-scale commercial extraction has been limited because of the ongoing conflict.
Artemsil, the state-owned enterprise headquartered in the Donetsk Oblast’s Soledar city, used to produce approximately two million tonnes of salt annually. This deposit was recognised as one of the largest salt mines in Europe. Later, in 2022, the mines were forced to stop their operations because of Russia-Ukraine tensions and artillery shelling. Regular shelling in Donbas has not only destroyed cities like Bakhmut but also harmed its coal mines, CBM wells and power plants. This shows how warfare and geology are tragically intertwined.
Yuzivska gas field is a shale gas reserve that stretches across the Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts. According to reports of the Ukrainian Geological Survey and US Energy Information Administration (EIA), it holds approximately 1.2-2 trillion cubic metres of gas in place, which makes it one of the biggest untapped shale reserves in Europe. To reduce its import dependence, the Government of Ukraine, in 2013, awarded the gas field to Shell under a production-sharing agreement. Shell began with the exploration drilling activities in the field. But by 2014, the project came to a halt because of the conflict situation in Donetsk and Luhansk. Since then, the government has been making rigorous attempts to find a new exploration-cum-production partner. But these efforts have failed due to the ongoing conflict in the region. Considering its huge potential and feasibility to exploit, it may be considered as one of the reasons that have made Donbas contested and geopolitically critical.
With an average depth of only 7 metres, the Sea of Azov is not only the shallowest sea on the globe but also geologically related to the Donbas Basin. The coal- and gas-bearing sedimentary layers lying beneath the basin extend towards the seabed, thereby connecting the region’s mineral resources with its trade routes. This shallow inland sea is linked to the Black Sea through the Strait of Kerch, a route once used to export coal and steel from the Donbas region to international markets. Since 2014, following changes in control over Crimea and subsequent developments after 2022, the Strait of Kerch and the Sea of Azov have acquired increased geopolitical and strategic significance. As of 2024, open and official sources mentioned that Russia adjusted its naval positions between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov to match the evolving situation.
The significance of Azov not only lies in its maritime route, but also in its geology. The linking of its shallow seabed with the coal and gas of Donbas makes it a strategically important centre of gravity for both trade and economy.
There are two sides to Donbas in terms of strategic significance. For Russia, the region is likely to be important because of its coal, gas and other critical mineral resources, its geographical location linking Russia with Crimea and the Sea of Azov; and its significance due to the large population of Russian-speaking people in the region. For Ukraine, Donbas is a key point for its steel industrial sector and holding on to the Yuzivska gas field can strengthen its energy security and reduce its import dependency. Such overlapping interests have made the area central to the wider conflict.
Considering both the angles, Donbas shows how natural resources, geography and identity can play a crucial role in both Russia’s and Ukraine’s strategic calculations, making the region a focal point of their contest.
Ukraine’s long-term prospects depend on rebuilding its resource base. Redeveloping Artemsil will be a test of industrial restoration. Reviving Yuzivska under Naftogaz could redefine the energy balance if security conditions allow. The outcome of negotiations over the Sea of Azov will determine whether it remains a Russian-controlled region or reopens to international trade.
The ongoing tension in Donbas shows how geology and strategy are closely interconnected. Minerals underground and the strategic importance of the Azov Sea may decide both the next phase of the conflict and Ukraine’s economic future.
Nipam Joshi is a Geologist and currently serves as Assistant Mineral Economist (Intelligence) at the Indian Bureau of Mines, Ministry of Mines, Government of India.
Views expressed are the author’s own and don’t necessarily reflect those of Down To Earth