On May 27, three days after the monsoon reached India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast a near-normal rainfall for 2025. It even predicted normal rains in northwest India. On September 6, with less than a month left in the season, that forecast looks increasingly fragile. The country has cumulatively received 8.6 per cent surplus rain, keeping the near-normal prediction broadly intact. But the outlook for northwest India has gone drastically wrong.
IMD records rainfall in 727 of the country’s 738 districts. By September 6, at least 85 districts received large excess rainfall (60 per cent or more above normal) and another 164 saw excess rainfall (20-59 per cent above normal). This means one in three districts across India has been drenched by excess or large excess rain this season. The bulk of these lie in the northwest. Of the 208 districts analysed there, 60 per cent recorded excess or large excess rainfall.
The consequences have been devastating. India recorded extreme weather events on every one of the 92 days between June and August this year, according to “India’s Atlas on Weather Disasters”, maintained by the data centre of Delhi-based non-profit Centre for Science and Environment and Down To Earth. For this analysis, only three rain-related extreme weather events were considered: heavy rains, floods and landslides; lightning and storms; and cloudbursts. Heavy rains, floods and landslides were reported on all 92 days. Lightning and storms struck on 77 days. Cloudbursts were recorded on 14. On August 31, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of IMD, said that the number of cloudbursts in 2025 was broadly in line with previous years. Yet the season saw an unusual event in Chennai, where on August 30, five separate cloudbursts were reported in a single day. Typically associated with mountain regions such as the Himalayas and the Western Ghats, cloudbursts are rare in the plains. At the same press conference, Mohapatra also noted that “mini-cloudbursts” are on the rise, although he did not provide figures for 2025. A cloudburst is defined as 100 mm or more of rain in an hour over an area of 20-30 sq km, while a mini-cloudburst involves about half that intensity, with 50 mm of rain in an hour. The “India’s Atlas on Weather Disasters” does not currently track mini-cloudbursts.
The spread of extreme weather events has been as alarming as the frequency. On August 28, at least 21 states and Union Territories (UTs) experienced heavy rains, floods and landslides. On two other days, June 23 and August 18, at least 20 states and UTs were hit by heavy rains. On 73 days, at least 10 states and UTs were simultaneously affected by heavy rainfall, floods and landslides.
Himachal Pradesh was the worst-hit. It was battered by extreme weather events on 76 days by August 31, followed by Kerala and Madhya Pradesh (72 days each). In total, 13 states and UTs reported an extreme weather event every second day.
Another worrying trend this monsoon has been the way the desert regions received rainfall. By September 6, Rajasthan was drowning under surplus rainfall of 74 per cent. The frequency was shocking, with eight of the 13 weeks from June 5 to September 3, recording large excess rainfall, and another week recording excess rainfall. Equally concerning was the spread, with 32 of the state’s 33 districts receiving large excess (23 districts) or excess rainfall (nine districts).
A similar pattern was recorded in the cold desert of Ladakh, which received a cumulative surplus rainfall of 434 per cent, with both its districts reeling under large excess rainfall. While no deaths have been reported yet, the sudden downpours have raised fears of glacial lake outburst floods.
Even before the monsoon set in, the warning signs were visible. Rainfall between January and May remained either deficient or normal, yet extreme weather events were unusually frequent and widespread. The “India’s Atlas on Weather Disasters”, which has tracked such events since 2022, shows a sharp spike this year. In the 243 days between January and August 2025, India recorded heavy rains, floods and landslides on 235 days, or 97 per cent of the period. In the preceding three years, the same period saw such events on only 68-78 per cent of the days.
The human toll has been staggering. The three extreme weather events have already claimed more than 3,502 lives across the country this year. This is over 40 per cent higher than in 2024, the second deadliest year since 2022.
While floods, landslides and cloudbursts in the northwest dominated headlines this monsoon, significant damage was recorded elsewhere too.
Of the five states with the highest human toll in the first eight months of the year, Jharkhand in the east and northeast region, recorded the highest with 470 deaths. The sharp increase in deaths due to lightning and storms is one of the factors behind this. In 2022, Jharkhand was 12th in the country with only 13 lightning deaths. The numbers went up to 21 in 2023 and 53 in 2024. In 2025, deaths shot up to 214, putting Jharkhand second after Uttar Pradesh.
The state is followed by Madhya Pradesh in central India (435 deaths) and Andhra Pradesh in the south (421 deaths). Himachal Pradesh, the worst-hit in the northwest, recorded 308 deaths, as per the “India’s Atlas on Weather Disasters”. Uttar Pradesh (267 deaths) and Jammu and Kashmir (238 deaths) followed.
With a month of the monsoon still remaining, the human cost of rains is likely to worsen. IMD forecasts a near-normal rainfall for September at 109 per cent. The country will have to brace itself for more extreme weather events, which have become the defining feature of this year’s monsoon season.
This article was originally published in the September 16-30, 2025 print edition of Down To Earth