A deep depression that has formed over the Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm over the next six hours, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). It is expected to remain a cyclonic storm till October 24, 2023 5.30 pm before weakening into a deep depression the following day at 5.30 am.
IMD predicts the system will move nearly north-northeastward and cross the Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Chattogram around the evening of October 25 as a deep depression.
Source: IMD
A cyclonic disturbance is called a depression if the associated sustained maximum wind speed at surface level is 17-27 knots, wherein a knot is equal to 1.86 kilometres per hour. If sustained maximum wind speed increases to 28-33 knots, it is a deep depression. When the maximum average surface wind speed is in the range of 34 to 47 knots, it is called a cyclonic storm.
Currently, the system is 360 km south of Paradip (Odisha), 510 km south-southwest of Digha (West Bengal) and 660 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh).
A strengthening depression over the Bay of Bengal can become a cyclonic storm before impacting Northeast India and Bangladesh around midweek, Jason Nicholls, the lead international forecaster meteorologist at AccuWeather, a United States-based company that provides local and international weather forecasts, posted on X (formerly Twitter).
IMD has also issued a rainfall warning. Light to moderate rainfall is predicted in Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, south Assam and Meghalaya. Isolated heavy rainfall is expected over Mizoram, with heavy to very heavy rainfall over Tripura on October 23 and 24.
Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over the same region on October 25 as well. The intensity will decrease on October 26, with light to moderate rainfall at a few places in the region.
As for Odisha, the IMD said light to moderate showers are expected in most places on October 23 and 24. Isolated heavy rainfall over coastal areas of north Odisha is likely on the same day.
Coastal districts of West Bengal, too, are likely to witness light to moderate rainfall at most places on October 23 and 24. IMD has also warned of damage to paddy crops, horticulture, and vegetables in the districts of North and South 24 Parganas, Purba Medinipur, Howrah and Hooghly.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, as visualised by weather forecasting service Windy, showed the landfall is likely to occur near Chattogram on October 25. The wind speed shortly before landfall is expected to reach 56 kmph.