Hurricane Beryl, currently hurtling towards Jamaica, is rewriting record books, becoming the strongest hurricane to form in July and the earliest category 5 storm ever observed in the North Atlantic Ocean.
Storms with wind speeds in excess of 252 kilometres per hour are classified as category 5. Beryl has undergone multiple rounds of rapid intensification, showing what oceanic warming can do to hurricanes and other tropical cyclones.
Previously, hurricane Beryl set a record as the earliest category 4 hurricane (wind speeds ranging from 209 km/hr to 251 km/hr) and the only one to form in June before tearing through the Caribbean countries of Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines on July 1, flattening several islands.
The hurricane season in the North Atlantic Ocean begins in June and lasts until November, with the strongest hurricanes developing later in the season after the sea surface has warmed sufficiently. Because of the warm weather, it feels like August or September for Beryl.
Beryl is expected to make landfall in Jamaica as a major hurricane on Wednesday, July 3, according to the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) of the United States. The hurricane reached peak wind speeds of 259 km/hr on the morning of July 2 (Atlantic Standard Time).
“Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola (Haiti and Dominican Republic) through late Wednesday,” said the NHC. It could become the strongest hurricane to ever hit Jamaica with wind speeds of around 240 km/hr.
Other neighbouring countries, including Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, Belize and the Cayman Islands, have been put on alert. The storm may also hit Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula later this week.
The storm is also weakening, but how much weakening will occur before it reaches Jamaica is difficult to predict.
"Cat 5 Hurricane Beryl may finally be starting a weakening trend as vertical shear begins to disrupt its inner core structure, with the western side of the core showing signs of decay. Precisely how much weakening this will cause remains difficult to predict,” wrote Levi Cowan, an independent weather forecaster and hurricane analyst, on the social media platform X.
Despite slight weakening, Beryl remains a major hurricane. Such an early occurrence of an extremely intense storm demonstrates the North Atlantic Ocean’s unprecedented warming over the last few years.
Hurricanes require warm seawater to gain strength in terms of wind speed and rainfall. Typically, the surface waters of the North Atlantic are warm enough for the development of a category 5 hurricane in August.
Global oceans hit a record high in May for the 14th consecutive month, according to the Global Climate Report of the National Centers for Environmental Information, a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the United States. “Record warm temperatures also occurred in the North Sea and neighboring seas in the North Atlantic,” said the report.
Hurricane Beryl has gone through multiple phases of rapid intensification as a result of the warm North Atlantic. A hurricane is said to undergo rapid intensification when it gains wind speeds of 56 km/hr or more in a span of 24 hours.
Within one of these phases, it went from a category 1 hurricane (wind speeds ranging from 119 to 153 km/hr) to a category 4 hurricane in just one day.
Beryl grew from a hurricane with wind speeds of 120 km/hr on June 29 afternoon to a category 4 hurricane with speeds of 209 km/hr by late morning of June 30, according to the Weather Channel, a private weather forecasting platform.
In less than 24 hours, the hurricane gained wind speeds of nearly 90 km/hr and the primary cause is warming oceans.
“Waking up this morning to #Cat5 165 mph #HurricaneBeryl, the earliest cat 5 on record in the North Atlantic and one of the only storms on record to complete 3 separate rapid intensification cycles in the basin,” wrote Kieran Bhatia, a climate expert with global risk and reinsurance company Guy Carpenter, on the social media platform X. Bhatia further expects the hurricane to move towards Texas and undergo one more phase of rapid intensification before making landfall.
“A key ingredient for rapid intensification is warm water. The ocean temperature must be greater than 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27 Celsius) extending more than 150 feet below the surface,” Brian Tang, associate professor of Atmospheric Science at the State University of New York, wrote in nonprofit news source The Conversation.
The other factors needed for rapid intensification to occur are low vertical wind shear and a moist atmosphere around the storm, according to Tang.
Low vertical wind shear, a warm North Atlantic Ocean, weak trade winds and the anticipated La Niña were cited as the reasons by the NOAA for an above normal hurricane season in 2024.
Beryl seems to be leading the way towards a record breaking hurricane season.