Planet's super, and hyper, El Nino crisis

The World is seeing not just a "super" El Niño but a "hyper" one. The World Meteorological Organization forecasts that the ongoing event in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, set to peak around December, could be the strongest since observations began in 1950. Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, used to measure the strength of El Niño, have reached unprecedented levels. “Niño3.4 region anomalies are now at a 3.4°C above normal, higher than any prior El Niño event on record,” comments Zeke Hausfather, climate scientist at Berkeley Earth and lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Seventh Assessment Report, adding, “September monthly Niño3.4 anomalies also set a record at 2.9°C (beating 2015 and 1877's 2.75°C).” The 1877 figures are from reconstructed data.

How is the world preparing for this episode of El Niño? Countries bracing for the impacts are rolling out national plans, just to hedge the losses in case of extreme dry events, storms or rainfall. India, for example, has identified its most vulnerable districts and mounted drought-proofing activities to save crops. Already, many states have declared drought, enabling official relief operations to support farmers.

But these plans are clinical and just address the broad impact framework. El Niños are distinct; one event may not be the same as the other. Previous super El Niños—in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16—may not provide templates to help prepare for the upcoming one. The rapidly warming planet would also impact how the episode unfolds—the already hot planet might offset impacts. Studies show that during the 2023-24 El Niño, warm oceans beyond the area where the event formed subdued many typical impacts. This year, we have a similar situation with the tropical and northern Pacific Ocean warmer than normal.

On one aspect, there is certainty: economic losses. The 1997-98 event, termed the “El Niño of the century”, caused global GDP reduction of US $5.7 trillion. The 1982-83 super event caused a loss of $4.1 trillion. For context, the 2008 economic recession reduced global GDP by $2 trillion. It is certain that the economic losses from the present event would surpass the previous ones. In a 2023 study published in Science, researchers say, “In an emissions scenario consistent with current mitigation pledges, increased ENSO amplitude and teleconnections from warming are projected to cause $84 trillion in 21st-century economic losses, but these effects are shaped by stochastic variation in the sequence of El Niño and La Niña events.”

In a more specific forecast, the Peterson Institute for International Economics said recently, “If the intensity of El Niño winds up of similar magnitude to the last super El Niño in 1997-98, the contemporaneous economic losses will be on the order of $986 billion in 2027. Unless the international community and national-level policymakers start acting now, those losses could rise to at least $7.2 trillion over the following five years.”It further said, “This six-year cumulative figure does not assume any additional shocks. It simply reflects the compounding effect of reduced investment in the years following the initial event, which is precisely where the policy window lies.”

Most countries that will see the worst impacts are poor and developing, with huge agricultural losses. According to Unicef, “Unusually wet and dry conditions are expected to increase the likelihood of extreme weather events, including heavy flooding and severe droughts, threatening the lives, health, and education of children in nearly 100 countries and territories.” Global food security is already threatened by wars and major droughts. Thus, the super El Niño will test how the world comes together for another planetary emergency.

This article was first published in the November 1-15, 2026 print edition of Down To Earth