In the aftermath of a devastating earthquake in Myanmar on 28 March, over 2,000 people have tragically lost their lives. While this is the official death toll, experts fear the true number could be much higher. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has warned that the death toll could rise to more than 10,000.
The earthquake, which registered a magnitude of 7.7, struck the heart of Myanmar, particularly affecting cities such as Mandalay and Sagaing. Since the quake, rescuers have been working around the clock to pull survivors from the rubble. In Sagaing, the city closest to the epicentre, the situation is dire. At a local cemetery, bodies are beginning to pile up, and the smell of death has started to permeate the streets.
Even cities far from the epicentre are feeling the quake’s effects. In Bangkok, Thailand—more than 1,000 km away—significant damage has been reported. As of 31 March, at least 20 people have been confirmed dead, and over 75 remain missing.
The quake’s epicentre was just 16 km north-northwest of Sagaing, according to the USGS. Sagaing sits on the Sagaing Fault, a major geological fault line that runs between the Indian and Sunda plates. It is one of the most seismically active faults in Southeast Asia, stretching over 1,200 km and passing through major cities such as Sagaing, Mandalay, and Naypyidaw, the capital of Myanmar.
Between 1906 and 1991, the Sagaing Fault produced at least eight major earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7.0, and this recent event is no exception. The region’s unique geomorphological conditions, including soil amplification from alluvial deposits, further intensified the seismic waves.
Interestingly, a 2024 study had already predicted the possibility of a major earthquake in Naypyidaw, warning that effective mitigation plans were urgently needed.
Myanmar, which has been under military junta rule since the 2021 coup, faces a long and difficult road to recovery. The country is currently embroiled in a civil war, complicating efforts to provide humanitarian aid. In times like these, relief efforts are critical, but the ongoing conflict makes aid delivery incredibly challenging.
In an unexpected move, Myanmar’s leader, Min Aung Hlaing, has called for international assistance. However, the military junta controls just 21% of the country, with the rest under the control of ethnic armed groups and resistance fighters. This makes many of the hardest-hit areas inaccessible to foreign aid.
Compounding these difficulties, the Trump administration significantly reduced the US Agency for International Development (USAID) activities in the country, making it far more difficult to assess the areas most in need and distribute aid on the ground. Given these challenges, Myanmar’s road to recovery looks increasingly uncertain.
The recent earthquake has reignited fears and the age-old question: when and where will ‘the big one’ strike? Experts have long warned that a catastrophic earthquake—possibly even more powerful than Myanmar’s—is inevitable.
Many believe that an earthquake of around magnitude 8.0 could hit the Himalayas, affecting northern India, including major cities such as Delhi and Chandigarh, as well as neighbouring Nepal.
While there is no clear timeline, the question remains—will we be ready?