The BRICS nations are poised to see fossil fuel capacity drop below half of their installed power capacity by the end of 2024 in a major shift towards cleaner energy, according to a new report by Global Energy Monitor (GEM). This marks the first time the bloc has reached this milestone, signalling a crucial moment in the global transition from coal, oil and gas to renewable energy sources.
The BRICS group — originally formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and recently expanded to include Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Egypt — is home to half of the world’s population and responsible for a third of global gross domestic product (GDP) and carbon dioxide emissions. Despite their historical reliance on fossil fuels, particularly coal, the new data reflects a rapid pivot towards renewable energy across these nations.
This year, 190 gigawatts (GW) of non-fossil power capacity, primarily wind and solar, have already been added across China, India and Brazil, the GEM report highlighted. This surge contrasts sharply with the 72 GW of fossil fuel power scheduled to come online in the BRICS countries in 2024. Even if an additional 88 GW of fossil capacity currently under construction becomes operational, it would still fall short of the non-fossil additions.
By year’s end, the BRICS nations will have approximately 2,289 GW of renewable energy capacity compared to 2,245 GW from fossil fuels. For comparison, the European Union reached this 50 per cent renewable energy share in the early 2010s, while the G7 achieved parity only last year.
The BRICS countries are also accelerating their renewable energy development. Wind and utility-scale solar projects under construction or in planning stages now total 1,550 GW — more than double the capacity of fossil fuel projects in the pipeline. When factoring in hydropower, the ratio of renewable projects to fossil fuel projects in development nears three to one.
This rapid development means BRICS nations are on track to nearly triple their renewable energy capacity by 2030, aligning with the global goal set at 28th Conference of Parties or COP28 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to triple renewables and keep global warming within the 1.5 degrees Celisus limit. If the current growth in renewables continues, the BRICS bloc could see its total renewable energy capacity increase by more than 2.5 times by the decade’s end.
Despite the progress, fossil fuels are not disappearing entirely from the BRICS energy mix. Every member nation, except Ethiopia, still has active coal, oil, or gas projects in development. If completed, these projects would expand coal capacity by 36 per cent and oil and gas capacity by 53 per cent. This ongoing investment in fossil fuels presents a challenge to the clean energy transition, as it risks undermining the substantial gains made in renewable energy development.
James Norman, Project Manager for the Global Integrated Power Tracker at GEM, acknowledged this tension, stating, “The BRICS bloc is at a watershed moment. The clean energy transition really is happening everywhere. Still BRICS are some of the only countries in the world planning new coal projects, which would undermine the impressive progress to date in cleaning up their energy systems.”
As BRICS nations continue to develop renewable energy at an unprecedented pace, their ability to balance new fossil fuel projects with their environmental commitments will be critical in shaping the global energy landscape. While the fall of fossil fuels below 50 per cent of total capacity marks a significant step forward, the path to fully decarbonised power systems remains a complex and evolving challenge for the world’s emerging economies.