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From Rs 200 to Rs 9: Plummeting solar costs could spark India’s clean energy revolution

Plummeting solar costs could pave the way for a coal-free, round-the-clock power future, suggests study

DTE Staff

A dramatic 95 per cent drop in the cost of solar photovoltaic modules — from over Rs 200 per watt in 2010 to under Rs 9 in 2024 — is helping propel India toward a potential clean energy revolution, according to new research from the India Energy & Climate Center (IECC) at the University of California, Berkeley.

The study, Plummeting Solar+Storage Auction Prices in India Unlock Affordable, Inflation-Proof 24/7 Clean Power, suggested that the price plunge is not merely a technological milestone — it’s a tipping point. It means India can now feasibly generate and store solar power for round-the-clock use at a price lower than most industrial electricity tariffs and new coal-fired power plants. Solar-plus-storage systems, the researchers found, can deliver 24/7 electricity with over 95 per cent availability at under Rs 6 per kiloWatt hour (kWh).

Recent auctions in India have revealed record-breaking prices: Standalone battery storage was bid as low as Rs 2.8 lakh per megawatt (MW) every month and solar-plus-storage bids came in between Rs 3.1 and Rs 3.5 per kWh, the research stated.

By optimising generation and storage, researchers estimated that a “flat block” of clean power — steady, round-the-clock electricity — can now be provided at Rs 4-4.3 per kWh. Even with backup to ensure 100 per cent reliability, the cost remains under Rs 4.7 per kWh — much lower than the average industrial electricity rate of Rs 7.9 per kWh.

Global prices of solar photovoltaic modules have fallen to less than Rs 9 per watt (or $0.10 per watt). At the same time, global production capacity for solar PV modules has grown rapidly, reaching 1,150 GW by the end of 2023, with plans to increase it to 1,600 GW by 2030.

The shift isn’t just about cheap panels. Battery storage technology has also advanced rapidly. Lithium-ion pack prices have fallen from Rs 13,860 per kWh in 2020 to Rs 8,388 per kWh this year, while their lifespan has increased to as many as 15,000 cycles without performance degradation. When solar and batteries are co-located — built on the same site — the resulting savings on infrastructure make the economics even stronger.

India now has around 200 gigawatt hours of battery manufacturing capacity under development, positioning it to become a global hub for energy storage just as it did for low-cost solar deployment over the past decade, the paper said.

The study suggests this solar and storage paradigm could render many new coal power projects financially unviable. Coal plants in India average around 85 per cent availability — lower than the 95-100 per cent achievable with solar-plus-storage using minimal backup.

In addition, solar-plus-storage systems are modular, can be scaled more easily than GW-scale coal infrastructure and are faster to deploy, the IECC paper stated.

For India’s industrial and commercial consumers this could be transformative. Industrial tariffs have historically risen with inflation and vary significantly by state, but solar-plus-storage offers a stable, long-term alternative.

Even after accounting for transmission tariffs (up to Rs 1 per kWh), the total cost of solar-plus-storage remains well below prevailing industrial rates in many states. The IECC report, however, cautioned that region-specific planning will be needed to deal with transmission constraints and solar variability. But the economics are already compelling.