India’s renewable energy installations have surged in recent years, but actual electricity generation from these sources remains low, a mismatch driven by soaring demand, extreme weather, and storage limitations, according to a new analysis by Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific project that tracks government climate action.
The country has expanded its renewable energy capacity substantially in recent years, including both utility-scale and rooftop solar. The report reviewed decarbonisation trends in the power sector against the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 degrees Celsius goal, including renewable energy, coal, oil and fossil gas, over the past five years.
The analysis found that renewables made up 37 per cent of India’s installed generation capacity. However, they contributed only about 18 per cent to the electricity generated.
As of 2023, India installed around 175 gigawatts (GW) of renewable capacity, including 73 GW of solar, 45 GW of wind, 47 GW of hydro and 10 GW of bioenergy. However, average annual generation over the last five years from wind and solar stood at just 11 GW, compared to 3.9 GW for coal.
Several factors contributed to the gap between installed capacity and actual generation, according to the researchers.
Chief among them was the country’s rising electricity demand due to extreme heat. Power consumption rose by 14 per cent in May 2024 compared to the same month in 2023, prompting increased domestic production and imports of coal and fossil gas. As a result, in comparison to renewables, the latter has a higher share in the energy mix.
Weather-related factors have also driven lower energy demand from renewables. Limited storage capacity posed a challenge, as it meant that electricity demand at night continued to be met largely through fossil fuel sources. In addition, lower-than-expected solar radiation and variable wind patterns affected generation too.
Total electricity generation in India reached 2,058 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024, up from 937 TWh in 2010. Coal’s share in the power mix rose from 69 per cent in 2010 to 75 per cent in 2024, while renewable energy increased from 15 per cent to 20 per cent in the same period. The share of fossil gas declined from 13 per cent to 3 per cent and other clean energy sources rose from 1 per cent to 3 per cent.
“In the last five years, both coal and renewables have increased significantly in terms of absolute power generation, but their shares of power generation have remained close to constant,” read the analysis.
On coal, the report warned that India was heading in the wrong direction. It noted that 27 GW of new coal capacity was either under construction or in advanced planning, with an additional 24.2 GW expected between 2027 and 2032.
The report argued that India would need international financial assistance to reduce coal’s share in electricity generation to 17-19 per cent by 2030 and to phase out coal power entirely by 2040, in line with a 1.5°C-compatible pathway. It also warned that India’s coal infrastructure risked becoming stranded assets under such a scenario.
The tracker also flagged India’s ambiguous approach to phasing out fossil gas. While its 2030 generation targets were broadly aligned with a 1.5°C scenario, current fossil gas expansion plans were inconsistent with a full phaseout by 2040.
The report rated progress in renewable energy development in India’s power sector as “slow”. It estimated that renewables would need to supply 52-65 per cent of the country’s electricity by 2030 and 91-96 per cent by 2040, to be compatible with climate goals. International support would be essential to achieving this transition, it added.
The report evaluated assessed power sector decarbonisation efforts in 15 other countries.
In North America, the United States showed slow progress with coal and renewables and was moving in the wrong direction on fossil gas. Canada was “making headway” on phasing out coal and expanding renewables, but also saw negative trends in fossil gas, like the US.
In South America, Brazil and Argentina showed mixed results on coal and gas, while progressing on renewables. Chile was “making headway” on coal and renewables, but also gave mixed signals on fossil gas.
In Africa, Nigeria remained coal-free, but showed minimal progress on renewables and a worsening trend on gas. South Africa showed mixed signals on both coal and gas, with slow growth in renewables.
In Europe, the United Kingdom was coal-free, but made slow progress on renewables and showed mixed trends on gas. Norway and Switzerland had largely decarbonised their power sectors, with the latter being free of both coal and gas.
Türkiye’s coal sector was expanding, while renewable progress remained slow. Fossil gas trends were mixed. In Asia, Saudi Arabia and South Korea gave mixed signals on oil and gas, with slow progress on renewables, the analysis stated.