Following the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam on April 22, India has taken decisive diplomatic and strategic measures against Pakistan, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. This landmark agreement, signed in 1960, has withstood decades of bilateral tensions and conflicts.
The move has drawn sharp reactions from Pakistan, with experts now analysing its potential ramifications.
The treaty governs the sharing of six Indus Basin rivers between the two nations.
Himanshu Thakkar of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People (SANDRP) explained that during the Indo-Pak partition, while Pakistan inherited more irrigated land, India retained control over key water sources.
After India restricted water flow during the 1947-48 war, Pakistan faced severe shortages, eventually leading to the World Bank-mediated treaty after twelve years of negotiations. The agreement allocates the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas and Sutlej — to India, while the western rivers — Jhelum, Chenab and Indus — were assigned to Pakistan.
Despite the western rivers carrying significantly more water, India secured rights to limited storage and run-of-the-river hydropower projects. Thakkar notes the treaty's durability stems from its detailed provisions, including a three-tier dispute resolution mechanism and mandatory data sharing at regular intervals.
Currently, India utilises about 90 per cent of its allocated eastern rivers' waters through various hydropower projects, while its utilisation of western rivers remains constrained by Pakistani objections.
The suspension raises critical questions about India's next steps. It could potentially expand water storage, resume stalled projects like the Tulbul navigation scheme, restrict Pakistani inspections of ongoing hydropower developments, and cease hydrological data sharing. Such measures would significantly impact Pakistan's irrigation and flood management capabilities, particularly amid increasing climate variability.
In Kashmir, longstanding grievances persist regarding the treaty's perceived inequity in water allocation. Some experts suggest India may now reconsider its utilisation of western rivers to address regional developmental needs. While immediate actions may focus on leveraging water as diplomatic pressure, long-term strategies could involve major infrastructure projects to enhance water storage and diversion capabilities.
The treaty's suspension marks a pivotal moment in Indo-Pakistani relations, with water resources becoming an instrument of geopolitical strategy. As both nations assess their positions, the coming months will reveal whether this leads to renewed negotiations or further escalation in tensions.
The move underscores India's willingness to employ all available measures in response to cross-border terrorism while potentially reshaping the subcontinent's water-sharing dynamics.