Reindeer or caribou could decline by up to 80 per cent by the end of this century because of climate change, a new study has warned.
The decline can only be stemmed if there are major cuts to greenhouse gas emissions and increased investment in wildlife management and conservation, the study by an international team of researchers, led by the University of Adelaide and University of Copenhagen noted.
The scientists looked back 21,000 years and examined how reindeer responded to past climatic events, asking whether they will be able to cope in the future.
They used fossils, ancient DNA and computer models to reconstruct changes in the abundance and distribution of reindeer over the past 21,000 years at resolutions never done before. They then directly compared these to future predictions.
The experts found that populations of reindeer have experienced major declines during periods of rapid climate warming, but the losses expected in the coming decades due to future climate change are likely to be even more severe than those in the past, according to a statement by the University of Adelaide.
Reindeer populations in in North America are particularly vulnerable.
“Our forecasts show that these North American caribou populations are most at risk from climate warming, with declines of up to 80 per cent likely by 2100 unless there are major cuts to greenhouse gas emissions and increased investment in wildlife management and conservation,” the statement quoted Associate Professor Damien Fordham, Deputy Director of the Environment Institute at the University of Adelaide, who co-led the research.
The declines, according to the authors, are likely to have far-reaching ecological implications that will further increase the vulnerability of caribou in North America and reindeer in Eurasia to climatic warming and other stressors.
“Reindeer and caribou help maintain plant diversity in the tundra by feeding on some plants and influencing how others grow, meaning that where they disappear, plant diversity is likely to decline,” noted the statement.
Continued losses will likely further exacerbate climatic warming through release of soil carbon to the atmosphere, according to the study.
The researchers urged increasing investment in the management and conservation of reindeer and caribou populations, particularly in North America, where losses are forecast to be greatest.