A sustainable ocean economy is within reach if we act now. Transitioning from a 'grey' to a 'blue' economy involves reducing fossil fuels, boosting renewables, and improving fishing and shipping practices.
This shift promises prosperity, reduced inequality, and ecosystem protection, benefiting all by 2050.
The ocean has long been treated as boundless — a frontier for extraction and a sink for waste. This perception has driven decades of exploitation and neglect, pushing marine systems toward irreversible decline. Yet with urgent, collective action, recovery remains within reach, offering renewed global benefits for people, nature and economies.
The world is at a fork in the road regarding the environmental and economic health of our ocean, and the welfare of those who depend on it. Decisions made now will determine whether we perpetuate an unsustainable “grey” ocean economy (one that is dominated by unsustainable and unjust practices) or take a path to a regenerative and just “blue” economy that supports equitable outcomes for communities, ecosystems and economic systems.
Our team’s recent study captures a snapshot of the current ocean economy, forecasts to the mid-century, and outlines different ways forward.
If the world carries on the “business as usual” path, the ocean economy will remain dominated by fossil fuel extraction, overfishing, unsustainable aquaculture and polluting shipping. Ocean health will be further burdened by the influx of land-based waste.
This raises the risk of environmental collapse and deepens global inequality by disproportionately affecting people who are least responsible for those damaging activities. This destabilises the ocean economy.
Even a probable path shaped by optimistic changes won’t meet mid-century decarbonisation and sustainability targets, and will exacerbate global inequalities. Fossil fuels are still expected to supply over 70 per cent of offshore energy by 2050, while offshore wind growth remains too slow to meet climate targets.
Seafood production will rise through aquaculture as climate change, overfishing and illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing reduce potential for wild catch, with forecasted harvests still exceeding sustainable limits. And shipping emissions remain a major challenge, as International Maritime Organization’s targets face delays due to slow technological progress and adoption.
But it doesn’t have to be this way. Growing pressure from civil society, non-governmental organisations and grassroot campaigners is prompting corporations, private sector coalitions, financiers and governments to make the bold shifts needed for a blue economy.
Future ocean strategies must address the inequities at the heart of unsustainable ocean-based sectors that create a persistent tension between environmental protection and rising global demands.
The blue economy offers a path forward. Responsible ocean stewardship can drive prosperity, reduce inequality and safeguard ecosystems. Evidence shows that investing in offshore wind, sustainable seafood, cleaner shipping, and mangrove restoration could yield benefits over five times the cost by 2050. Transformative action can break from a legacy of extractivism and shift the grey ocean economy toward a blue economy that benefits all.
Moving towards a blue economy now will be easier, cheaper and fairer than dealing with the consequences later. This involves five key steps: reduce fossil fuels, increase renewables, improve the sustainability of fishing and shipping, plus cut polluting waste from land-based agriculture and coastal cities — which must be planned and implemented inclusively and equitably.
Glimmers of blue already exist in the ocean economy around the globe.
Countries such as Denmark, France, Ireland and Costa Rica have banned fossil fuel exploration and production. This proves that with strong political will, nationwide transformation is possible.
While New Zealand was one of the first to go down this path, the current government recently reversed the ban — demonstrating that without additional legally binding requirements or collective responsibility, governments can always backtrack.
Denmark, once the EU’s largest oil producer, is now the country with the largest proportion of electricity produced from wind power, with nearly half of that capacity offshore. A transformation that took less than two decades.
International policy to eliminate government subsidies that support environmentally destructive fishing practices can drive global action. Communities can also drive initiatives for sustainable food production. For example, hundreds of fishers in Mauritius, are diversifying and growing seaweed as a nutrient-rich food source and sustainably sourced fertiliser.
Shipping innovations include internationally coordinated green corridors. At a local level, harnessing a natural sandbar at Lekki, Nigeria protects port infrastructure and enhances coastal ecosystems without needing to manufacture a harbour wall made from concrete or steel.
Countries including Pakistan and Madagascar have restored mangroves to reduce flood risk and support sustainable fishing while benefiting biodiversity and storing carbon.
Some UN initiatives are tackling ocean pollution from land-based activities such as litter, including plastic pollution, run-off from fertilisers and sewage. For example, farmers in countries including Ecuador, India, Kenya and Vietnam are switching to less polluting fertilisers and reducing agricultural plastic waste. This has prevented over 51,000 tonnes of hazardous pesticides and 20,000 tonnes of plastic waste from being released into the ocean.
Intentional change in policies, laws, and institutions that manage human activities affecting marine environments can curb corporate control and promote equity in ocean governance — helping shape a blue economy. This can include recognising the ocean as a living entity with its own rights, planning ocean use with fairness in mind, and sharing knowledge and money to support nature-based solutions.
Charting a path to a blue economy is essential to prevent severe climate disruption and irreversible harm to marine ecosystems and society. The health of our ocean — and our planet — hinges on the strategies we adopt and the decisions we make now.
Susan Gourvenec, Royal Academy of Engineering Chair in Emerging Technologies - Intelligent & Resilient Ocean Engineering, University of Southampton and Wassim Dbouk, Marine and Maritime Policy Research Fellow, University of Southampton
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.