A new study warns that Gavli Dhangar pastoralists near Maharashtra’s Sahyadri Tiger Reserve are facing rising livestock losses to leopards, dholes and tigers.
Researchers say predation rates in some hamlets are close to, or have crossed, the point at which herds can naturally replace themselves.
Scientists warn that continued losses could force families to abandon pastoralism, migrate for labour or increase the risk of retaliatory poisoning and poaching.
The findings challenge common assumptions that human-wildlife conflict is driven mainly by rising livestock numbers or poor animal shelters.
A long-standing relationship between pastoral communities and large carnivores in Maharashtra’s Western Ghats may be close to breaking down, scientists have warned.
A recent preprint of a study says the semi-nomadic Gavli Dhangar community living near Sahyadri Tiger Reserve, in the Konkan region, is facing rising livestock losses to leopards, dholes and tigers.
Researchers warn that if predation continues at current levels, livestock herds may no longer be able to sustain themselves. This could push families out of pastoralism, force them into migrant labour or, in more extreme cases, trigger retaliatory poisoning of carnivores or support for poaching.
Milind Watve, an independent researcher and one of the authors of the study, said the situation may already be “at or close to the tipping point” where livestock populations can no longer recover naturally.
The researchers studied 122 households across 25 hamlets, which together owned 1,280 livestock — 563 cattle and 717 buffaloes. The average household owned about 10 animals (10.49), 4.6 of which were cattle and 5.88 buffalo. The male-to-female birth ratio was 0.64 in cows and 0.088 in buffaloes.
Between 2019 and 2025, researchers recorded 250 livestock kills. Attacks by all three carnivores increased during the period, with the annual attack rate rising to 0.063 per animal by 2025.
The key issue is whether livestock herds can produce enough female calves to replace losses over time. “To sustain a healthy replacement female population, the rate needs to be more than one. It is not enough for one female calf to be born; she must survive and reproduce so that she can replace her mother. If the situation is maintained, the population increases naturally,” Watve said.
But increased predation can reduce this replacement rate. The study estimates that, depending on the lactation cycle, a predation rate of 0.045 to 0.06 per animal per year may be enough to push the system to a tipping point.
Watve said the average rate across the study area had already reached about 0.05 per animal per year. In some hamlets, it was as high as 0.14. He said the most worrying sign was that some families had stopped rearing animals because they feared further losses.
The study says this could start a vicious cycle. As livestock numbers fall, pastoral livelihoods become less viable, increasing the risk that families abandon the occupation altogether.
The researchers say several ecological changes appear to have altered the balance between the community and carnivores.
Traditionally, livestock in the area was occasionally killed by leopards. But from 2019, dholes, which were earlier largely confined to the upper ranges of the Western Ghats, began expanding their range and attacking livestock. The study notes that there had previously been no record of dholes killing buffaloes in this area.
The paper also says reports of tiger attacks on livestock began after three female tigers were translocated from eastern Maharashtra to Sahyadri Tiger Reserve in 2025-26.
The authors say the Dhangar community’s dependence on livestock has also increased because crop cultivation has become more difficult. The community earlier grew minor millets and rice during the monsoon, but crop damage by wild pigs and gaur has led to a decline in cultivation, especially of millets.
Some rice farming continues, but livestock now plays an even more central role in household survival.
The authors say the findings challenge common assumptions about human-wildlife conflict.
Conflict is often attributed to rising human and livestock populations or greater intrusion into wildlife habitats. But in this case, the study says, Dhangar families and their livestock have been declining in and around the study area, partly because of displacement linked to the tiger reserve and voluntary migration away from the region.
It also says grazing areas used by the community have shrunk during the study period, suggesting that increased livestock pressure in the forest cannot fully explain the rise in carnivore attacks.
Poor livestock shelters are also often cited as a cause of carnivore predation. But the study says the Dhangar practice of sheltering animals at night inside well-built stone houses makes this explanation unlikely.
The authors argue that other factors, including the possibility that carnivores are becoming less fearful of humans, need further study.
They warn that standard conflict-mitigation measures may not be enough in such landscapes. Conservation policy, they say, must look more closely at the conditions under which coexistence between pastoral communities and large carnivores begins to fail.